FanPost

An Attempt to Measure Draft Prowess

My Purpose

I have a question. How adept at the NFL Draft is Rick Spielman?

I have been torn over the last season regarding Spielman's ability to successfully create a winning team. I know many of you have been with me on that matter. I have long been a fan of most of Speilman's work in many respects. I like his draft strategy of accruing picks to create talented depth behind talented starters. I admired that he was willing to take a swing for the fences with quarterbacks, no matter who it may be, as they are clearly the most important piece on the field. I like that he was strong enough to move on from Diggs (I love the guy and am so happy for him this year) and get a first rounder for the 5th round original draft pick. I like that he hired defensive tough guy Mike Zimmer as the head coach for a team that couldn't tackle to save their lives under defensive-minded Leslie Frazier. I like a lot of what goes on, or so I thought. But a more thorough examination is warranted, I believe.

This year has tested my admiration of the man... And I know many of you are with me on that front! Our talented depth turned into guys no one has heard of before, just trying to field a team. Okay that is harsh, but certainly the depth was severely tested on defence this year! Our talented starters turned into "Throw them into the Frying Pan" rookie starters. Our one big free agent signing opts-out... Our trade for a star DE that sort of made sense, but didn't at the time, turned into a bit of a debacle... What has 2020 been all about? What is happening?

So in my questioning of everything Spielman, I decided to turn my attention to the part of his work that I love. The draft. Just how good is he at the draft? Often we hear other execs think he is a great draft master. Is that actually true? How can we test that?

Clearly the number one method would be to look at Super Bowl championships... Uh oh! But, one could make the argument that this is a huge combination of so many factors beside the draft!

To make a long story short, I decided to look at the value of the players that Rick Spielman has drafted during his entire tenure as the sole draft master for the Minnesota Vikings. Pro Football Reference provides the stat of Career Approximate Value for every drafted player for the NFL. The metric is based off their on field production and is weighted at 100% for their best year, 95% for their second best year, 90% for the third, and so on. So the longer a player is in the NFL, the higher his Cav, as more years have added together. This isn't a perfect metric, that is for certain. It does however give a value to the success that each player has achieved in the NFL. That has a lot of variables that account for success (coach, scheme, talent of team, etc), but it gives us a number to apply to draft results.

My Method

I have mapped out every draft pick from 2012 to 2019 in terms of draft pick and the value that pick has earned. I chose not to include 2020, as the values of rookies are so low that they can create drastic changes in the overall assessment of each team. For example, measuring a 7th rounder on their 1st year, probably isn't too fair. In fact all 4 off the Vikings 7th rounders from 2020 have a value of 0. A lot of rookies fail to accrue much in the way of time on the field, unless the certain team has an empty position when they take the field (Vikings). Obviously this has an effect with second year players as well, but I had to start somewhere.

By mapping each pick, and sorting into rounds drafted, I can then create an average approximate value for each round of the draft. So I have each team broken down to each round of each draft, and then simplified to one number per round. Every team can then be compared against others in each round of the draft. I want to know where Spielman stacks up in the first round of drafts, the 2nd, and so on.

I go further then to create a simple total draft score based upon each rounds average approximate value, and then a simple weighted total that I will get into in more detail much later on in this post.

The Results

The results are interesting to say the least. There are many occasions of a player drafted in a late round, significantly improving their teams average value for that round, as not as many late rounds hit. In the first round, it is expected to have larger scores, so the opposite is true, a low value can significantly hurt a team.

I have decided to reveal the results in reverse order, simply to build the suspense. I would apologize, but I'm not really sorry.

7th Round

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First, the Vikings. 10th overall score in the 7th round. To put these scores into perspective, Justin Jefferson for his record breaking rookie year has earned a value of 14 after just 1 year. Some of these 7th rounders have maybe been in the league for 8 years, while many never play in a game. It may be unfair to compare a 7th rounders career to Jefferson's rookie season, but it provides context for what the value signifies. The Vikings best 7th rounder under Rick is Shamar Stephen with a Cav of 29, from 2014. To put that into more perspective, Chris Carson with Seattle, another 7th rounder has a Cav of 28, from 2017. So Stephen's value in 7 years of playing is almost the same as Carson's in just 4. NOT including the 2020 draft, Rick has drafted 21 players in the 7th round, 6 of which have a value of 0.

Philadelphia has a massive score for the 7th round. They have used almost all of their 7th round draft picks on players that have accrued some playing time and value in the NFL. Tampa's isn't so good. in the last 8 years, Tampa has literally found no value to their football team in the 7th round. 5 total picks, 0 value in the NFL. That isn't good.

The highest Cav from the 7th round is 47. Kelvin Beachum drafted by Pittsburgh, and JR Sweezy drafted by Seattle both have this value.

As for the NFC North, Chicago has found the most success in the North with quite a lot of value found in the 7th round, while Detroit and Green Bay have been pretty terrible in this round over the last 8 years.

6th Round

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The Vikings, Spielman specifically has not had good results from the 6th round. So glad he trades back to have lots of 6th round picks... 1.93 is very little value at all. Somehow that miraculously ranks us ahead of 4 other teams (including Philly that ranks 1st in the 7th round). Atlanta has the best draft values from between 2012 and 2019 with an average value of 10.

The NFC North doesn't fare well in the 6th round, for the most part. Green Bay is right in front of us ranked 27th, and Chicago is also in the bottom half at 20th. Detroit with a good value of 6.42 ranks 9th. A good result, as I would think any top 10 results should be considered good (ahem, Vikings... 7th round, oh, 7TH round... darn).

The highest valued player in the 6th round for the Vikings during this time is troubling. Blair Walsh has a Cav of 14, which is just over half of our total Cav from the 6th round of 27. If we didn't draft that kicker, we would be ranked second last. Of course, we could have added other value instead, but the average value for Rick is would be less than 1 on every other draftee.

The highest valued player overall from the 6th round is Danny Trevathan, LB, drafted by Denver. He was drafted 188th overall. Yes Blair Walsh was 175th... Ouch. That being said, there were 187 passes on Trevathan, we only had several of those.

5th Round

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In the 5th round the Vikings improve into the top half of the NFL, coming in at 14th, once again, right ahead of Philly. Chicago tops the list, with a really strong 5th round value of 22, which is well clear of second place Jacksonville. Green Bay ranks 4th and Detroit is 6th. The North dominates this round, well three teams do.

Spielman's best pick in the 5th round has been unsurprisingly, Stefon Diggs, with a huge value of 53. Of course he isn't on the team anymore, and just had a massive year in Buffalo, helping to raise his value to that number. But this is simply a measure of the ability to evaluate talent to project into the NFL. Spielman definitely got it right with Diggs, the rest of the 5th round hasn't been good. Our next best valued player from the round is Robert Blanton, with a value of 9. Yikes. Without Diggs, the Vikings average value would be 3.9. That would rank us 3rd last for this round. Amazing the value one player can make on these averages, and in Rick's defence, we do see that with many teams!

Tyreek Hill comes in at the top of 5th round total value from 2012 on, with 57. Diggs is second.

4th Round

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We are starting to get into the rounds where value is a little more consistent, though certainly nothing close to 1st round consistency.

The Vikings once again find a ranking in the top half. Coming in 13th position for the 4th round. Unfortunately this time, another NFC North team finds itself at the top of the rankings. The Packers have over double the value the Vikings have found in this round. Chicago is ranked 18th, and Detroit 29th in the 4th round. I am happy to see that as the rounds get more important, or at least have better players, we are in the top half, but this is no ringing endorsement of Rick Spielman. For him to be a Draft Guru (that's a little strong, I admit it), I would expect consistent top ten rankings, or even higher perhaps! Undoubtedly the tale will be told as we move closer and into the first round, but I am not terribly thrilled by what I have seen thus far.

For fourth round Drafts, Spielman found Jarius Wright in 2012 with a value of 23. He does have more consistent picks for this round with 4 of 10 picks having a value of 15 or higher. But no stars were found in this round by Rick. The Packers on the other hand have found David Bahktiari in 2013 (value of 85), Mike Daniels in 2012 (41 value), JC Tretter in 2013 (31), Blake Martinez (38) and Dean Lowry (28) in 2016, and Jamaal Williams (22) in 2017. Amazing and consistent value this far into the draft.

The top player in this round is indeed Bahktiari although Dak Prescott was a great find in 2016. Even after missing most of this year, his value is at 61. Kirk was drafted by Washington in the 4th round in 2012. His value is 73, that is the second best accrued 4th round value since 2012. Kirk is second for this round! You like that??!?!

3rd Round

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The 3rd round, certainly the most important thus far is a much better story for the Vikings and for Rick. With an average value of 18.17, Rick ranks 8th in round 3. Perhaps equally important, for the first round we have examined, the Vikings have a better ranking than the other NFC North teams. Detroit is close behind in 10th, while Green Bay and Chicago fall to 29th and 30th respectively. It is nice to see that in this round the Vikings have more than double the average value of GB and Da Bears.

Spielman has only made 6 picks in the 3rd round, but found Hunter (42 value), McKinnon (23), and Elflein (23). Hunter is clearly his greatest 3rd round pick to this point. Other notables in the North are Larry Warford(47) for Detroit, Eddie Jackson (35) for the Bears and no one for the Packers.

The highest 3rd round accrued value for any player from 2012 onward is Seahwks' Russel Wilson, with an incredible value of 120. This explains why they are ranked 5th for this round, and certainly helps to account for Super Bowl trips and a victory.

2nd Round

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Now we are seeing somewhat consistent success at the top end of the draft for the Vikings. Ranked 5th again in the 2nd round is a really good sign. It means that we are finding more consistent high value players at the top of the draft. The 1st round is obviously the most important, so I won't award any prizes here, but it is much more comforting to know that the 2nd AND 3rd rounds are good for the Vikings. 2 results in the top quarter of teams. Chicago and GB are also in the top half, sitting at 10th and 11th, while Detroit slips to 19th for the 2nd round rankings.

The Vikings best draft pick, in terms of Cav, in the second round during Spielman's drafts was in 2015. That would be Eric Kendricks at a value of 46. This was Rick's first 2nd round pick on his own, as he traded them away in the three years previous. Dalvin Cook was drafted 2 years after Kendricks and has a value of 35. Both of these values should certainly continue to rise as time goes on. It will be interested as time goes on to revisit these values.

The Packers found Devonte Adams in the 2nd round of 2014 (54 value), while the Bears found Alshon Jeffrey in 2012 (50 value). Detroit's best 2nd rounder in this time is Darius Slay in 2013 (45).

The highest value from a 2nd round draft pick is another Seahawks draft pick. Bobby Wagner was drafted in 2012, one round before Wilson. Wagner has an accrued value of 101. SUPER BOWL!

Finally, time for the most important of all round, the 1st

1st Round

This is the most important round. Obviously! Can Spielman continue the success we have seen in the 2nd and 3rd round.

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Okay, not so great, not terrible, but really nothing to be very happy about. With an average 1st round value of 29 we sit tied for 15th, just barely making the top half of the league. The Rams and KC have huge average values at the top, while there are 5 teams with an average value under 20. I may have pointed out that last bit due to the fact the the PACKERS sit in 28th in terms of 1st round drafted value. I love it. Surprising to some may be the fact that Detroit has had very good 1st round value in the drafts since 2012. The Bears sit behind us in 18th position.

The top accrued value for a first round player is a value of 99 for the star of the defence for the Rams. Aaron Donald is no real surprise to anyone I would think. This helps to explain why they sit at the top. The Rams also drafted three other players with values in the 50's. As for KC, they have 5 picks in the 1st round over this time frame. 4 of the 5 are over 50 in Cav. That is amazing.

First Impression

My first impression of these results is that the results for Rick in the draft are fairly pedestrian, mediocre in fact. Certainly the 2nd and 3rd round results are very encouraging. But falling to the middle of the pack in the 1st hurts. I am definitely concerned by the first glance at these rankings in terms of rounds.

There are a couple other pieces I decided to consider with the draft.

First, where do these rankings put Rick overall in comparison to other teams? We saw the Vikings and others all over the place in terms of rankings, so do the good rankings for Rick outweighs the bad? Do other teams have their bad outweighing their good? Maybe he is below average, or elite compared to other teams results. I can't just consider the individual round rankings, but must look at the draft as a whole and then compare team results this way.

Second, The Vikings aren't picking 1st overall, and so have a distinct disadvantage compared to teams that are. In theory, I should get more value from the 1st pick, compared to the 2nd, or 15th, or 29th. How can I look for value per individual pick of the first round, regardless of the point at which they were chosen? Can I get all of this data down to one number that evenly compares a 15th pick to 1st pick in terms of overall value? I will try, but I'm not sure how successful it will be.

Draft Evaluation by Team

Okay, so I have a several different methods here.

First, just adding the rankings for each round together we can get a total for the rankings. Obviously, the lower the number, the better the rankings each round. Theoretically, a team with a small total of round rankings has done well, and vice versa.

Totals

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VERY mixed results here. We see KC in second overall,, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo, all top teams in a lot of ways in the league right now. But we also see Carolina (they do have a fairly recent Super Bowl visit), Jacksonville, Minnesota(?). Perhaps this makes sense, however a weighted total would make more sense. The first round is obviously more valuable than the 7th. I did a simple weighting of 7x for the 1st round, then 6x for the 2nd round ranking, and so on, down to just 1x the ranking for the 7th round.

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This weighted system makes a lot more sense to me. Much more sense, as the 1st round should have a MUCH higher impact on your overall success in drafting. In this case we can see that KC comes in at number 1. That makes a lot of sense with the team they have built. They see a lot of success, and are primed to make a serious attempt at winning two more games to be the Champ again!. Buffalo is another team that has been building to a lot of success. Carolina is in there, which shouldn't be surprising. They have drafted some great players, McCaffrey, Kuechly, Lotulelei, Norman, and others over this time period. In 4th place... Wow. This weighted system makes a lot of sense to me, so it is hard to argue with the ranking here. There are certainly ways to do it, and many of you will do so I'm sure, but the weighted draft results lead one to believe that the GM of the Minnesota Vikings does a great job of the draft. This is also with a 1st round ranking of 15th. This means that in comparison to other GM's, and other teams, Rick Spielman is one of the best drafting GM's in the NFL.

The Cav is a good general measure of the value a player brings to a team. So one more measure of success. A weighted total of the Cav from each round of the draft, should prioritize the early rounds, specifically the 1st, and use the actual values, rather than just a ranking. This should create some nuances in the overall success of teams to draft value to their organizations. An example is the 1st round, where the Chiefs and Rams have HUGE success. Those huge values will provide them both with a boost in this new measure, as the actual value is measured, not just where they place.

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Here we have a true measure of draft success, depending on how much we should be valuing each round. This gives us a weighted Cav total, which measures the total average value found by each team.

So in terms of Minnesota, we have a ranking of 9th overall. A good drop from our 4th in the weight total of rankings, but a more accurate one for us to look at, in my humble opinion. Those first round grades of the Rams and Chiefs certainly made a big difference in amassing massive totals. But that makes sense, they have added so much value in the first round of the draft, that should be highlighted. A good GM must find value when it is the most important. Dallas and Buffalo are kind of groups together a little, with maybe Houston hanging on with them. Then we have several teams close together before there is a little bit of space. From 6th to 10th, the teams are fairly close. Minnesota in 9th is only 5 total value points behind New Orleans in 6th. That is adding a value of 1 in the first round over this time frame. That is not very much value. About 100 yards for a receiver. This is not very much space at all. These teams are virtually identical in draft success over this time.

As for the rest of the North, we see Chicago in 12th, and Detroit in 13th. Green Bay sits in 24th. This does not surprise me as they didn't draft their best player, and without A-A-ron, that team would look MUCH different, and achieve much less success.

Last Thought

I believe that Rick Spielman is good at the draft. I believe that he finds some very good value at the various draft picks that he accrues. I believe that he is not an elite drafter. I think the data that I have poured over and accumulated shows that there is a great deal of talent to be found in the draft, and that Rick finds more than a lot of other GM's/Teams out there. I think his propensity to trade back in the draft is good for developing depth on a team, but it hurts the ability to find stars. You rarely see massive values in the 5th round, compared to the 3rd, or the 1st. His desire to have a lot of picks later in the draft, should produce really good depth for a team. But if he is sacrificing the starters value on that team, then he can not build a successful team through the draft.

The place of the picks have a huge difference on the potential value to be found. I now need to take all this information and somehow apply average draft position, or actual draft position, in terms of the specific picks, to the weighted values. This will then normalize to some extent the specific position of each pick in order to see if Rick is finding great value at his specific picks, or not. If he is picking 11th, he shouldn't have the opportunity to find the same value as someone with the 1st pick. This does apply to the final weighted Cav totals that I posted directly above. Kansa City chose Eric Fisher 1st overall in 2013. His value is 60. Minnesota has Harrison Smith as their top Cav with the same value of 60, but he was drafted 29th in 2012. This should mean that the pick of Harrison Smith is a better pick than Eric Fisher, for Rick's probability of finding the same value at that pick is much less. The Rams found Aaron Donald at the 13th pick in 2014. He has a value of 99. That exceeds Rick's pick of Barr at 9th (a value of 48, the 12th best value from 2014 draft), but should mean even more, because Donald was passed over 12 times.

It will be interesting to see a comparison in this way. I just have to figure out the most meaningful application of the data to the picks that I can. So an update will come at some point in the near future (the next couple of weeks probably). I hope you have enjoyed this read, and breakdown.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.