FanPost

What to do about Kirk Cousins



At the beginning of the 2020 season, many Viking fans found themselves lamenting Kirk Cousins' contract. That chorus only grew louder after a dreadful Vikings start to that season, and it was starting to get difficult to find anyone really in Kirk’s corner. Most fans agreed that Cousins was not an elite level Quarterback and the team hadn’t performed to expectations throughout his tenure. How much of that was really Cousins' fault though was where many arguments began.

The Vikings finished the 2020 season with a disappointing 7-9 record, but admittedly played better as the year wore on, and Cousins was a big part of that effort. Still, nobody is going to cheer you when your team is under .500 in the ultra competitive NFL. Even with an improved Kirk Cousins, his impact on the team’s salary cap has often been brought up as a reason the Vikings don't have more quality players, and that is a fact that is hard for anyone to argue.


Complaints of Kirk’s outsized contract grow even louder when we look at the upcoming 2022 season, as his contract is slated to balloon to $35 million dollars in base salary along with $10 million in signing bonus for a whopping total of $45 million. Holy cow batman, that is a lot of money for anyone, let alone a guy who has never really played at an elite level! Cousins' career earnings at the end of next year will be $195M dollars. If nothing else, we can all agree that Kirk Cousins and his agent are elite contract negotiators!



From 2010 to 2020, there were 12 instances when a QB salary eclipsed 15% of a team’s overall cap, including Cousins 2019 year at 15.4%. In 2022, Cousins’ contract could be a whopping 22% of the Vikings overall cap. To put this into some perspective, no team has ever won the Super Bowl with their TWO most expensive players eating up 22% of their respective cap. The highest was 21.6% for Steve Young and Jerry Rice way back in 1994. If we were to take this fact and put it in a vacuum, it would be clear as day that the Vikings should sell high on Kirk Cousins right now and trade him. However, the decision to trade Cousins isn’t simple and doesn’t live in a vacuum. It’s actually rather complicated.


Let’s spend a few minutes evaluating what a Cousins trade might realistically look like. My first plan was to look at the recent deal involving Matthew Stafford last year as a proxy. Here are some of the particulars of that deal:


Detroit received:

2021 3rd round pick

2022 1st round pick

2023 1st round pick

Jared Goff (and his $10.6M 2021 salary)

Detroit also retains $17.8M towards its 2021 cap as part of this deal in Stafford costs

(for simplicity lets look at the above as the Lions paying Goff $27.4M for one year, after which they can then cut him to avoid the remaining $106M on his contract, which they undoubtedly will.)


Rams get:

Matthew Stafford

They take $22.2M in Goff expenses counting toward their 2021 cap space

They owe Stafford $43M across his 2021 and 2022 salary

(i look at the above as the Rams paying Stafford $33M per annum, and Stafford being able to negotiate a new contract or walk after 2022)


You can see from the above, this isn't a very easy deal to dissect. But I think the Rams wanted relief from a bad contract, and improved QB play. Detroit wanted draft capital and was willing to eat a bad contract for a year to go along with sub par QB play as they weren’t winning anything anyway..


It’s clear that relief from Goff’s contract was part of the value that the Rams received, so I believe we should set Kirk Cousins trade market LOWER than that deal.


Let’s go with something like:

2022 1st round pick

2023 3rd round pick


I do this for a few reasons: first, Cousins only has one year left on his contract, and it's an outrageously expensive one. An extension would very likely come with this deal, but that year is still a big pill to swallow. However, he is still a good QB in a league where finding QBs is a lot harder than people typically give credence to. His recent play has in my view INCREASED his value. His play since mid 2020 has been very good, and this year he is showing that if he is dealt to a team with a good O-Line, he can perform at a really high level. The other point I will make is that the first round picks in the Rams / Lions deals were in future years, thereby lowering their value as compared to a current year pick.


Let's also look at some teams that may be in the QB market next year:

Carolina

Washington

Pittsburgh

Denver

New Orleans

Miami

Houston

Atlanta

New York Giants

Detroit


I wanted to look at which of those teams have good offensive lines, which seems like the prerequisite Cousins needs in order to play really well and justify a team going after him. Hard to judge on the limited games played so far this year, so i looked at some website rankings, and as expected, very few of those teams had highly ranked O Lines. This really narrows the trade market down a lot. Here's the QB needy teams with reasonable O Line rankings heading into this year:


New Orleans

Washington

Detroit


Of the three, there's no way Washington trades for Kirk Cousins. It's highly unlikely Detroit would either, they are committed to a rebuild. This leaves one potential landing spot for Kirk Cousins, the New Orleans Saints. While I won’ say it's impossible for the Saints to be in the QB market, I do think it’s also unlikely. Jameis Winston has played reasonably well, so why bring in Kirk Cousins? Throw in that the Saints have the worst salary cap situation in 2022 at $50M OVER the cap, and it kills any thoughts of a deal in my mind.


OK, now we come to the conclusion that the trade Cousins theory doesn't really hold a lot of water. There really isn't a good fit with a partner to trade for Cousins even if the Vikings wanted to. Put a nail in that coffin, it ain’t happening.

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Now let's look at another option, which is to simply play out 2022 and pay out the $45M Cousins is due. Can the Vikings actually win if they have to put over 22% of it’s cap towards one player? Especially given that the Vikings only have 43 players signed for 2022 and are ALREADY $7.5 Million over the cap next year. No Bueno. Of course the Vikings can do some things next year to free up some money, and we’ve all seen that magic act before. A Danielle Hunter extension is all but guaranteed at this point, and it’s going to be costly, but might provide significant 2022 cap relief. But it won’t be enough, and unfortunately, looking at the other salaries the Vikings could dump, there aint a lot there. The following are the most impactful players the Vikes could cut to recoup some cap space:


Eric Kendricks $7.5M

Michael Pierce $6.5M

Harrison Smith $5.8M

Adam Thielen $5.8M


All four guys are still of high value to the Vikings. None of them would also classify as young, so re-working them for extensions isn't likely to be a great deal either. The Hunter deal might get us back under the cap, but we still need to pay next years rookie class from somewhere at a minimum. Either we cut one of the above players, or somebody has to rework their deal to free up roughly $10M if we want to bring in even a few cheap free agents. This doesn’t address possibly bringing Patrick Peterson or Anthony Barr back either. This scenario is rapidly putting us between a rock and a hard place. I do think cutting Hunter would free up a ton of capital ($18.5M) but who really wants to do that?



Having Cousins play out the final year of his contract frees the Vikings up for salary relief in 2023, and opens the door for the Vikes to re-sign Cousins as a free agent, allow the Kellen Mond era to begin, or draft another QB next year to season on the bench. But really does it make sense to draft a QB next year in a market where the Vikings won’t be picking before a few of the teams listed previously who will DEFINITELY be looking for a QB? And what odds do we really put on Mond becoming a strong NFL QB? No better than 50% and probably less than that.


Related to the above is the possibility of re-signing Cousins AFTER the 2022 year. Knowing Kirk and his agent though, that’s not going to come with much of a discount and the market for his services will likely be robust. One additional benefit of losing Cousins to free agency would be a 3rd round Compensatory pick. While those picks are great, we are talking about the Quarterback position. How many teams win the Super Bowl without strong QB play? VERY VERY FEW is the only answer to this question. Still, Cousins is having a very strong year this year and forcing him to replicate that in 2022 is to the Vikings benefit. If he doesn’t do that you do not re-sign him. If he does, you pay him his money because he will have earned an extension. Unfortunately, I just do not see our team affording his 2022 salary without taking a big step back elsewhere.


Of course we could just simply admit that a rebuild is necessary, and take that comp pick, and go all in on Mond if he improves, or sell the farm for a 2023 top draft pick QB. Based on how the 2021 "strong" NFL QB class is going, that implies a few years of seasoning before that theoretical QB might bear fruit. While I do not think this is the worst option, it is clear to me that any rookie QB is at best the much quoted 50-50 shot. So the Vikings would be entering a 3-4 year rebuild with a reasonable chance of a total swing and miss at a QBOTF. This does not appeal to me.

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Now that we have thought through all those options, let's look at the possibility of simply extending Cousins' contract this off-season to lower the cap hit in 2022. History has shown us that Cousins will likely drive at least a fairly hard bargain and be well paid, at least as long as he continues to produce at a high level like he has in 2021 to date. The NFL salary cap is likely to continue to rise, which might help lower the percentage of the cap his salary consumes in future years, even if he "gets paid".


In 2022 here are the top QB salary cap hits:

Matt Ryan $48.6M

Aaron Rodgers $46.1M

Kirk Cousins $45M

Deshaun Watson $40.4M

Ryan Tannehill $38.6M

Russell Wilson $37M

Patrick Mahomes $35.8M

Dak Prescott $34.5M


In 2023 we have:

Patrick Mahomes $46.8M

Dak Prescott $45.5M

Matt Ryan $43.6M

Deshaun Watson $42.4M

Russell Wilson $40M

Josh Allen $39.8M

Ryan Tannehill $36.6M

Aaron Rodgers $33.2M


You can see that QB salaries are climbing pretty rapidly. Some of those young guns from that special class a few years ago like Mahomes and Allen are moving quickly up the salary rankings. I actually view this as good news from both a competitive standpoint and also to help set the proper value for an aging Cousins. Countering that though is the very real fact that Kirk is playing so well. Coming into this year, despite my assertion in the middle of last season that Kirk was starting to re-write his narrative, he was not really considered a guy who would lead a team to wins. He’s begun doing that. If he continues doing that, even if the Vikings supporting cast keeps the team from great success, it's going to help his negotiating power.


During this upcoming offseason, if the Vikings rework Cousins' contract for 2022 and extend him 2-3 additional years, I think he's going to average upwards of $38M per annum. Some will scream at that number, but that’s what I think the market will bear because we all have to realize it only goes up. There are a few tactics the Vikes might use during a negotiation:

  1. Cousins track record and results are not as good as Mahomes, Prescott, Wilson or Allen. Might even throw a damaged Watson into that group.

  2. He already lives in Minnesota, good for his family to stay in one place

  3. Vikings O-Line is improving

  4. He’s having his best years with the continuity the Vikings are providing him

  5. He has great weapons on his current offense

  6. He has already achieved generational wealth

  7. He has started to re-write his legacy, and he’s more likely to enhance that in Minneapolis than other QB needy teams

  8. Keep showing him how Tom Brady shifted his focus towards setting his teams up to win over maximizing personal wealth and how that has actually paid him by extending his career thanks to good health.



OK, not sure any of that will work, but Cousins wouldn’t be the first guy to start worrying more about his legacy than his net worth after banking a lot of money.


In the end, it comes down to one question, do the Vikings have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins, or by drafting a QBOTF and grooming that person, and leverage the additional savings to add more pieces to their roster. For a long time this was a legitimate question, and with our poor O-Line play, Kirk Cousins proved he is not a truly elite QB. But the Vikings O-Line is starting to shape up, and with that, Kirk Cousins play has improved.


Even if the Vikings are finally able to reliably put out a quality offensive line, Kirk Cousins is not going to be confused for a truly elite QB, but he has proven many naysayers wrong over the past year. He has been engineering quality fourth quarter drives in crunch time. He began winning prime time games. He has in my opinion improved to the point that he is clearly a top ten QB in the league. This despite playing in a conservative offense. His PFF score sits at an impressive 89.9. For those wondering, that is only just a tick behind Russell Wilson at 90.3, and Tom Brady at 92.2. So yeah, Kirk’s PFF score is higher than guys like Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott. I think it’s clear that Cousins isn't as dynamic a player as many of those names, but almost none of those names are as pure and accurate a passer as Kirk Cousins either.


Taking all this in, I do think the path forward is pretty clear:


Kirk Cousins is our guy. Start saying it, and repeat it over and over until you’ve grown comfortable saying that. The time to get behind him is now, because I do not believe the Viking management will come to a different conclusion than I have. He is a talented QB and we are actually lucky to have him. We know what it takes to make him successful and need to keep working on that. We are not winning a Super Bowl with this team as presently constituted, but thats not because of our Quarterback. We aren’t as far away as people think, and Kirk Cousins is doing more than enough to warrant an extension. Keep the keys to our offense together, keep improving the O Line, and get the defense nasty and we will be firing on all cylinders.

SKOL Vikings!!!

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.