The Oddsmakers First Dozen Pick Mock Draft

The NFL Draft day is here, and everyone is wondering how it will unfold- which team will draft which player, will there be trades, and so forth. It’s been a remarkably quiet lead-up to the draft this year, with not a lot of rumors and news over the past few days.

Be that as it may, oddsmakers have put together a wide range of bets on everything from who will be drafted first, to whether the first draft pick will cry or not, and whether he’ll hug his mother, father, girlfriend, friend, sibling, or agent first. (Dad is most likely at +110).

We’ll leave the crying and hugs for Kramer and other addicted gamblers to wager upon and focus instead on the lines for each pick in the draft and piece together a mock draft based on the shortest odds at each draft slot.

Here we go... odds supplied by sportsbetting.ag or Bovada.

1. Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia

Walker has become the favorite to go first, at -300. Aiden Hutchinson has fallen to +275, and the next most likely is +600. Jacksonville opts for a potentially higher ceiling with Walker, rather than the more proven Hutchinson.

2. Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

With Walker rising to #1, Hutchinson becomes the clear favorite (-275) for the Lions at #2. Kayvon Thibodeaux is the next most likely at +300.

3. Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

The Texans have frequently been thought to go OL here, but Stingley has become the favorite in recent days, and is now +150 to go #3 overall. Next most likely is Ikem Ekwonu at +300. Not a welcome development for Vikings fans, but the logic with the Texans- who have a lot of needs including OT- is that they have their choice among the two top CBs here, with neither likely to be there at 13. On the other hand, there may be a top tackle that slips to them at 13. Apparently the Texans are more fond of Stingley than Sauce Gardner.

Some other relevant odds here: Walker, Hutchinson, Stingley going 1-2-3 has the shortest odds at +200. Stingley is also +150 to be a top 5 pick. The one line that still runs counter to the others is Ahmad Gardner at -200 to be the first CB off the board. Stingley is +125.

4. Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State

Gardner’s odds have steadily increased, and now he is the favorite at +300. But Ikem Ekwonu is +350 to go here, and the Jets are +125 to go offensive lineman- their most likely position drafted here. Ekwonu is also -190 to go under pick 4.5.

5. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

Charles Cross has the shortest odds here for the Giants at +170. The Giants are also -250 to take an offensive lineman here. Cross is also -175 to go under pick 6.5. Ahmad Gardner is +350 here, but with the Panthers more likely to go OT than CB, the Giants take Cross ahead of them.

6. Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

The Panthers have been linked to taking a QB here, have spent the majority of their pre-draft visits with quarterbacks, and are the oddsmaker’s favorite to take Kenny Pickett at +150. They don’t have another pick until the 4th round, so it’s now or never. But offensive line is now -250 for the Panthers, while QB is second at +170. But with Ekwonu and Cross off the board, Pickett is the next most likely pick here at +500, slightly ahead of Evan Neal at +550.

7. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Gardner has the shortest odds here for the Giants at +250. The Giants are rumored to be shopping James Bradbury, so taking Gardner makes sense here.

8. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

Wilson has the shortest odds to be selected at #8 for the Falcons at +250, with Drake London and Jameson Williams tied for second at +400. The Falcons are also -175 to take a wide receiver here, with defensive lineman a distant second at +500.

9. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

Neal has the shortest odds (+500) for the Seahawks here among prospects not already taken. But there is also uncertainty with those odds. The Seahawks are also +250 to take an offensive lineman here, +275 to take a QB, and +300 to take a defensive lineman, so it’s certainly possible the Seahawks could go another way. But Neal dropping this far would be fortunate for Seattle, and he would fit their offensive scheme as well. Neal is also -160 to go over the 6th pick.

10. Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State

Defensive and offensive lineman were the two most likely positions for the Jets to draft with their first pick, and having picked a offensive lineman at #4, they go defensive lineman here with Johnson, who was +400 to be picked by the Jets at #4- more likely than Kayvon Thibodeaux at +500. Johnson is also -145 to go under pick 9.5.

11. Drake London, WR, USC

Washington is -105 to go WR here, +225 to go safety. London is also -135 to go under the 10.5 draft slot. The rumor is that the Commanders top two WR candidates are London and Chris Olave. London has the more likely odds at this position. He has the second-best odds of being the first WR selected (after Wilson) at +250.

12. Minnesota Vikings

In this scenario, there are several interesting prospects on the board for the Vikings, including:

• Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
• Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
• Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Thibodeaux being available here goes against his odds to go in the top five pick (-750), but this is largely because Thibodeaux has odds that are a close second/third at many spots, starting at #2, but doesn’t get picked. There are rumors that due to his strong personality and shorter (33 1/8”) arms for a top edge rusher, he may fall a bit more than expected, and so it is in this scenario.

Thibodeaux and Williams being available could draw significant trade interest, so a trade down is a possibility here for the Vikings. Selecting one of the above is also a viable option.

What will the Vikings do ? We’ll have to wait and see.