FanPost

Statistical ranking of all QB's drafted or signed including significant UDFA's in the 2010's

I have recently started a statistical anaylsis of the NFL draft from 2010 to 2019 and am looking for feedback. In order to tell what Quarterbacks were a success I decided to try to use a system based on Weighted Average Value, a statistic developed by Profootball reference. This number is already weighted to help reduce the impact of players that had longer careers with lower levels of play by taking 100% of the players best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season. However that still meant players that have been in the league for a longer period had more time to accumulate AV even if it is balenced to not put less weight on career length. To comphonsate for that all current players who have started in the league for 5 or less years got a predicted AV based on what their Wav would be after completing 6 years in the league assuming they maintained the same level of play. This way players that maintained a high level of play without flaming out maintained some advantages while younger players were not punished for playing less seasons. With thease calculations added here is how they were ranked.

Player Rank Adjusted WAV
Patrick Mahomes † 1 129.5
Russell Wilson † 2 125
Kyler Murray † 3 118.8
Cam Newton † 4 115
Lamar Jackson † 5 109.15
Deshaun Watson † 6 96.2
Josh Allen † 7 94.35
Andy Dalton † 8 86
Ryan Tannehill † 9 84
Kirk Cousins † 10 82
Dak Prescott † 11 80.73
Baker Mayfield 12 77.7
Derek Carr † 13 75
Andrew Luck † 14 72
Jared Goff † 15 67.86
Carson Wentz † 16 66.69
Daniel Jones 17 64.8
Jameis Winston † 18 58
Gardner Minshew 19 51.3
Mitchell Trubisky † 20 47.025
Teddy Bridgewater † 21 47
Colin Kaepernick 22 45
Marcus Mariota 23 45
Sam Bradford 24 44
Tyrod Taylor † 25 44
Blake Bortles 26 44
Jimmy Garoppolo 27 43.29
Sam Darnold 28 40.7
Robert Griffin III † 29 36
Case Keenum 30 36
Drew Lock 31 32.4
Nick Foles † 32 31
Jacoby Brissett 33 28.08
Taysom Hill 34 27.075
Christian Ponder 35 22
Kyle Allen 36 18.5
Geno Smith 37 17
Colt McCoy 38 16
Blaine Gabbert 39 16
Trevor Siemian 40 16
Jake Locker 41 15
Brock Osweiler 42 14
Brandon Weeden 43 13
Tim Tebow 44 12
Taylor Heinicke 45 12
Nick Mullens 46 12
C. J. Beathard 47 11.4
EJ Manuel 48 10
Mason Rudolph 49 9.25
Mike Glennon 50 9
Logan Thomas 51 9
Jeff Driskel 52 7.02
T. J. Yates 53 6
Austin Davis 54 6
DeShone Kizer 55 6
Josh Rosen 56 5.55
Matt Barkley 57 5
Brett Hundley 58 5
Cody Kessler 59 5
Brandon Allen 60 4.68
Joe Webb 61 4
Ryan Mallett 62 4
Landry Jones 63 4
Matt McGloin 64 4
Johnny Manziel 65 4
A. J. McCarron 66 4
Bryce Petty 67 4
Dwayne Haskins 68 4
Mike White 69 3.7
Tim Boyle 70 3.7
Jimmy Clausen 71 3
Thad Lewis 72 3
Scott Tolzien 73 3
Tom Savage 74 3
Nathan Peterman 75 2.85
P. J. Walker 76 2.85
Kevin Hogan 77 2.34
Kellen Moore 78 2
Garrett Gilbert 79 2
Sean Mannion 80 2
Paxton Lynch 81 2
Ryan Finley 82 2
John Skelton 83 1
Rusty Smith 84 1
Max Hall 85 1
Greg McElroy 86 1
Matt Simms 87 1
Jeff Tuel 88 1
Zach Mettenberger 89 1
David Fales 90 1
Nate Sudfeld 91 1
Luke Falk 92 1
John Wolford 93 1
Will Grier 94 1
Jarrett Stidham 95 1
Alex Tanney 96 0.5
Mike Kafka 97 0
Jonathan Crompton 98 0
Dan LeFevour 99 0
Tony Pike 100 0
Levi Brown 101 0
Sean Canfield 102 0
Zac Robinson 103 0
Ricky Stanzi 104 0
Nathan Enderle 105 0
B. J. Coleman 106 0
Chandler Harnish 107 0
Ryan Nassib 108 0
Tyler Wilson 109 0
Brad Sorensen 110 0
Zac Dysert 111 0
B. J. Daniels 112 0
Sean Renfree 113 0
Aaron Murray 114 0
Keith Wenning 115 0
Tajh Boyd 116 0
Connor Shaw 117 0
Garrett Grayson 118 0
Christian Hackenberg 119 0
Connor Cook 120 0
Cardale Jones 121 0
Jake Rudock 122 0
Brandon Doughty 123 0
Davis Webb 124 0
Joshua Dobbs 125 0
Brad Kaaya 126 0
Chad Kelly 127 0
Kyle Lauletta 128 0
Tanner Lee 129 0
Danny Etling 130 0
Alex McGough 131 0
Logan Woodside 132 0
Easton Stick 133 0
Clayton Thorson 134 0
Trace McSorley 135 0
Devlin Hodges 136 0
David Blough 137 -2.7
Ryan Lindley 138 -4

†=Probowl

Anyone disagree with the final result? Cam Newton might seem a little high but he did win an MVP and go to a superbowl before recently flaming out. Jimmy Garoppolo coming in behind Blake Bortles, Sam Bradford and Marcus Mariota but at the same time it has been clear to anyone watching the 49ers that he really has been holding the team back. Interested for any comments or feedback.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.