I have recently started a statistical anaylsis of the NFL draft from 2010 to 2019 and am looking for feedback. In order to tell what Quarterbacks were a success I decided to try to use a system based on Weighted Average Value, a statistic developed by Profootball reference. This number is already weighted to help reduce the impact of players that had longer careers with lower levels of play by taking 100% of the players best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season. However that still meant players that have been in the league for a longer period had more time to accumulate AV even if it is balenced to not put less weight on career length. To comphonsate for that all current players who have started in the league for 5 or less years got a predicted AV based on what their Wav would be after completing 6 years in the league assuming they maintained the same level of play. This way players that maintained a high level of play without flaming out maintained some advantages while younger players were not punished for playing less seasons. With thease calculations added here is how they were ranked.
Player |
Rank |
Adjusted WAV |
Patrick Mahomes † |
1 |
129.5 |
Russell Wilson † |
2 |
125 |
Kyler Murray † |
3 |
118.8 |
Cam Newton † |
4 |
115 |
Lamar Jackson † |
5 |
109.15 |
Deshaun Watson † |
6 |
96.2 |
Josh Allen † |
7 |
94.35 |
Andy Dalton † |
8 |
86 |
Ryan Tannehill † |
9 |
84 |
Kirk Cousins † |
10 |
82 |
Dak Prescott † |
11 |
80.73 |
Baker Mayfield |
12 |
77.7 |
Derek Carr † |
13 |
75 |
Andrew Luck † |
14 |
72 |
Jared Goff † |
15 |
67.86 |
Carson Wentz † |
16 |
66.69 |
Daniel Jones |
17 |
64.8 |
Jameis Winston † |
18 |
58 |
Gardner Minshew |
19 |
51.3 |
Mitchell Trubisky † |
20 |
47.025 |
Teddy Bridgewater † |
21 |
47 |
Colin Kaepernick |
22 |
45 |
Marcus Mariota |
23 |
45 |
Sam Bradford |
24 |
44 |
Tyrod Taylor † |
25 |
44 |
Blake Bortles |
26 |
44 |
Jimmy Garoppolo |
27 |
43.29 |
Sam Darnold |
28 |
40.7 |
Robert Griffin III † |
29 |
36 |
Case Keenum |
30 |
36 |
Drew Lock |
31 |
32.4 |
Nick Foles † |
32 |
31 |
Jacoby Brissett |
33 |
28.08 |
Taysom Hill |
34 |
27.075 |
Christian Ponder |
35 |
22 |
Kyle Allen |
36 |
18.5 |
Geno Smith |
37 |
17 |
Colt McCoy |
38 |
16 |
Blaine Gabbert |
39 |
16 |
Trevor Siemian |
40 |
16 |
Jake Locker |
41 |
15 |
Brock Osweiler |
42 |
14 |
Brandon Weeden |
43 |
13 |
Tim Tebow |
44 |
12 |
Taylor Heinicke |
45 |
12 |
Nick Mullens |
46 |
12 |
C. J. Beathard |
47 |
11.4 |
EJ Manuel |
48 |
10 |
Mason Rudolph |
49 |
9.25 |
Mike Glennon |
50 |
9 |
Logan Thomas |
51 |
9 |
Jeff Driskel |
52 |
7.02 |
T. J. Yates |
53 |
6 |
Austin Davis |
54 |
6 |
DeShone Kizer |
55 |
6 |
Josh Rosen |
56 |
5.55 |
Matt Barkley |
57 |
5 |
Brett Hundley |
58 |
5 |
Cody Kessler |
59 |
5 |
Brandon Allen |
60 |
4.68 |
Joe Webb |
61 |
4 |
Ryan Mallett |
62 |
4 |
Landry Jones |
63 |
4 |
Matt McGloin |
64 |
4 |
Johnny Manziel |
65 |
4 |
A. J. McCarron |
66 |
4 |
Bryce Petty |
67 |
4 |
Dwayne Haskins |
68 |
4 |
Mike White |
69 |
3.7 |
Tim Boyle |
70 |
3.7 |
Jimmy Clausen |
71 |
3 |
Thad Lewis |
72 |
3 |
Scott Tolzien |
73 |
3 |
Tom Savage |
74 |
3 |
Nathan Peterman |
75 |
2.85 |
P. J. Walker |
76 |
2.85 |
Kevin Hogan |
77 |
2.34 |
Kellen Moore |
78 |
2 |
Garrett Gilbert |
79 |
2 |
Sean Mannion |
80 |
2 |
Paxton Lynch |
81 |
2 |
Ryan Finley |
82 |
2 |
John Skelton |
83 |
1 |
Rusty Smith |
84 |
1 |
Max Hall |
85 |
1 |
Greg McElroy |
86 |
1 |
Matt Simms |
87 |
1 |
Jeff Tuel |
88 |
1 |
Zach Mettenberger |
89 |
1 |
David Fales |
90 |
1 |
Nate Sudfeld |
91 |
1 |
Luke Falk |
92 |
1 |
John Wolford |
93 |
1 |
Will Grier |
94 |
1 |
Jarrett Stidham |
95 |
1 |
Alex Tanney |
96 |
0.5 |
Mike Kafka |
97 |
0 |
Jonathan Crompton |
98 |
0 |
Dan LeFevour |
99 |
0 |
Tony Pike |
100 |
0 |
Levi Brown |
101 |
0 |
Sean Canfield |
102 |
0 |
Zac Robinson |
103 |
0 |
Ricky Stanzi |
104 |
0 |
Nathan Enderle |
105 |
0 |
B. J. Coleman |
106 |
0 |
Chandler Harnish |
107 |
0 |
Ryan Nassib |
108 |
0 |
Tyler Wilson |
109 |
0 |
Brad Sorensen |
110 |
0 |
Zac Dysert |
111 |
0 |
B. J. Daniels |
112 |
0 |
Sean Renfree |
113 |
0 |
Aaron Murray |
114 |
0 |
Keith Wenning |
115 |
0 |
Tajh Boyd |
116 |
0 |
Connor Shaw |
117 |
0 |
Garrett Grayson |
118 |
0 |
Christian Hackenberg |
119 |
0 |
Connor Cook |
120 |
0 |
Cardale Jones |
121 |
0 |
Jake Rudock |
122 |
0 |
Brandon Doughty |
123 |
0 |
Davis Webb |
124 |
0 |
Joshua Dobbs |
125 |
0 |
Brad Kaaya |
126 |
0 |
Chad Kelly |
127 |
0 |
Kyle Lauletta |
128 |
0 |
Tanner Lee |
129 |
0 |
Danny Etling |
130 |
0 |
Alex McGough |
131 |
0 |
Logan Woodside |
132 |
0 |
Easton Stick |
133 |
0 |
Clayton Thorson |
134 |
0 |
Trace McSorley |
135 |
0 |
Devlin Hodges |
136 |
0 |
David Blough |
137 |
-2.7 |
Ryan Lindley |
138 |
-4 |
†=Probowl
Anyone disagree with the final result? Cam Newton might seem a little high but he did win an MVP and go to a superbowl before recently flaming out. Jimmy Garoppolo coming in behind Blake Bortles, Sam Bradford and Marcus Mariota but at the same time it has been clear to anyone watching the 49ers that he really has been holding the team back. Interested for any comments or feedback.
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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