When should the Vikings extend Justin Jefferson?

What could an extension for Justin Jefferson look like and when will the Vikings offer one?

We have seen over the last few months a handful of top wide receivers receive contract extensions that average over 24M per year.

Player : Age : Total : Avg/Yr : Yr Signed

Tyreek Hill : 28 : $120,000,000 : $30,000,000 : 2022

Davante Adams : 30 : $140,000,000 : $28,000,000 : 2022

Cooper Kupp : 29 : $80,100,000 : $26,700,000 : 2022

A.J. Brown : 25 : $100,000,000 : $25,000,000 : 2022

Stefon Diggs : 29 : $96,000,000 : $24,000,000 : 2022

D.J. Moore : 25 : $61,884,000 : $20,628,000 : 2022

Mike Williams : 28 : $60,000,000 : $20,000,000 : 2022

Terry McLaurin : 27 : $70,000,000 : $28,000,000 : 2022

The question is how many first round picks received new deals after only 3 years? I cant find any first rounders.

Josh Allen after 3rd year

Christian McCaffrey after 3rd year

Kolton Miller after 3rd year

Frank Ragnow after 3rd year

Jake Matthews after 3rd year

Myles Garrett after 3rd year

Vita Vea after 4th year

Jaire Alexander after 4th year

DJ Moore after 4th year

Jamal Adams after 4th year

Mike Evans after 4th year

Brandin Cook after 4th year

DeAndre Hopkins after 4th year

Odell Beckham Jr after 4th year

Khalil Mack after 4th year

Aaron Donald after 4th year

Taylor Lewan after 4th year

Zach Martin after 4th year

Anthony Barr after 5th year

* Terry McLaurin after 3rd year (he was a third round pick and the team did not have a fifth year option)

There are not any first round receivers who got a deal after only 3 years but JJ has set the record for most receiving yards and tied for most receptions in a players first two seasons. Assuming he has another 98 catches with 1500 yards and 8 TDs then it might be very wise to lock him up before the numbers go even higher.

What other receivers will be free agents in 2023 provided that they do not receive an extension before?

2023 Free Agents

Deebo Samuel

DK Metcalf

Diontae Johnson

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Jakobi Meyers

Mecole Hardman

DJ Chark

JJ will be at the top of this list with Deebo & Metcalf.

I think that if everything works out and he has another great year, a 4 year 124M extension would be pretty fair.

He gets a 30M signing bonus (highest) and 76M guaranteed (highest).

His contract would run from 2024 through 2027.

His salaries would be $2,399,473, 22.5M, 23.5M, 23.5M, and 24.5M.

His cap hits would be $10,175,437, 28.5M, 29.5M, 29.5M, and 30.5M

This would cost the Vikings an extra 6M in cap space in 2023.

Right now, the team has 10.9M in cap space but need to sign Booth and Ingram which would would use about 811K since they would displace two players at the bottom of the top 51 used to calculate the cap space. Once the season starts, they need to add 1.79M for spots 52 & 53 plus about another 3M for practice squad salaries. If they do not sign anyone else they probably are looking at carrying over 5M into 2023.

Za’Darius Smith and Adam Thielen have some decent incentives that could eat into the 2023 cap space as well. Without the carryover and incentive adjustments the team has $2,078,689 in cap space in 2023. They have to make some kind of adjustments in order to extend JJ. The top two candidates for moving on are Kendricks and Cook. Ham is likely a cap casualty as well. Those three removals would get the team to $22,527,416 in cap space. Moving on from Chris Reed saves 2.5M as well. This would get the team to $25,527,416 in cap space.

JJ’s extension leaves them with 19.5M in cap space.

Assuming that Hunter plays all season and gets double digit sacks, they might be able to extend him with a 4 yr 84M? deal which could cost 4M in cap space giving them 15.5M to do things.

They can extend Tomlinson without incurring any cap hit because he already has a 7.5M dead money cap hit. Maybe a 4 yr 42M deal?

If they do these moves, leave the contracts of Thielen, H. Smith, & Z. Smith alone, they would have 14.8M to sign rookies and possibly some inhouse free agents. The likely main inhouse free agents are Garrett Bradbury, Irv Smith Jr, Patrick Peterson, Chandon Sullivan, Armon Watts, and Jesse Davis. It will be tight if they plan on keeping most of the high paid players.

The question is should the Vikings set a precedent of giving a first round receiver an extension after only 3 years?

I have to say yes! 100%