Vegas’ View of the Vikings: 2022-23 Edition

The regular season is just a couple weeks away, and the oddsmakers are hard at work putting together a whole slate of odds for the Vikings this season.

As is often the case this time of year, odds are often more of a reflection on how a team did last season, with some degree of change based on changes in personnel. And therein lies the opportunity for saavy students of the NFL. Sometimes off-season changes or circumstances last season that may not be repeated this season may not be fully appreciated by the wagering community which drives the odds. Things like injuries, strength of schedule, extraordinary good or bad luck in close games, performances unlikely to be repeated like leading the league in turnovers, or making 100% of field goals, etc. Or perhaps a key addition may have more of an impact than is widely expected.

So is the sports betting community expecting much change from the Vikings this season? Clearly a new coach, new GM, and some new players should produce some change, no? They seem to like Kevin O’Connell as Coach of the Year, and Justin Jefferson as the leading receiver and potential offensive player of the year, so what does that mean for the Vikings’ post-season chances?

Odds are from sportsbetting.ag, except over/under player performance odds from Bovada.

I’ve translated odds into probability percentages as well.

Vikings Team Odds

Exact Regular Season Win Total (shortest to longest odds)

9: +245 (29%) | 10: +265 (27.4) | 11: +375 (21.1%) | 8: +375 (21.1%)

12: +485 (17.1%) | 7: +550 (15.4%) | 6: +725 (12.1%) | 13: +750 (11.8%)

Beyond that, all exact win number odds decrease from +1500 (6.3%) for 5 wins to +100000 (0.1%) for 0 wins.

The Vikings over/under win total is 9.5, but you can see with 10 and 11 wins being more or equally likely to 8 wins, and 12 the next most likely, the bias is on the over.

NFC North Matchup Odds

Vikings/Packers

1-1: +110. 47.6% chance the Vikings and Packers split the regular season series.

2-0: +310. 24.4% chance the Vikings sweep the Packers.

0-2: +185. 35.1% chance the Vikings get swept by the Packers.

Vikings/Lions

1-1: +115. 46.5% chance the Vikings and Lions split the regular season series.

2-0: +115. Also a 46.5% chance the Vikings sweep the Lions.

0-2: +575. But only a 14.5% chance the Vikings get swept by the Lions.

Vikings/Bears

2-0: +100. 50% chance the Vikings sweep the Bears this season.

1-1: +125. 44.4% chance the Vikings and Bears split the series.

0-2: +650. But only a 13.3% chance the Bears sweep the Vikings.

Overall, the Packers are the favorites to win the division, and the Bears the clear favorite to finish last. The Vikings have much better odds of finishing second than the Lions. So, odds favor the division finishing Packers, Vikings, Lions, Bears, in that order.

Division/Championship Winning Odds

NFC North: +235 (29.9%)

Packers are the favorite at -175 (63.6%), Vikings 2nd, Lions 3rd at +800 (11.1%), and Bears at +1600 (5.9%).

Make the Playoffs: -135 (57.4%)

Odds lean toward the Vikings entering the post-season.

NFC Playoffs First Seed: +1600 (5.9%)

Bucs, Pack, Cowboys, Rams, 49ers, and Eagles are all ahead of the Vikings, in that order, and the Cards have the same odds.

NFC Championship: +1400 (6.7%)

Contenders here are similar to the first seed odds.

Win Super Bowl: +3300 (2.9%)

All teams being equal, each team enters the season with a 3.1% chance to win the Super Bowl. The Vikings at 2.9% puts them at about an average chance to win the Super Bowl, but neither favorite nor laggard really. Vikings are tied for 18th best Super Bowl odds with a few other teams including the Raiders, Dolphins, and Saints.

Best/Worst Team Win/Loss Record

Vikings are +5000 (2%) for each, so oddsmakers are confident the Vikings’ season won’t be extraordinarily good or bad.

Stage of Elimination

Miss Playoffs: -105 (51.2%)

Lose in Wildcard Round: +220 (31.3%)

Lose in Division Round: +450 (18.2%)

Lose in Conference Championship: +1100 (8.3%)

Lose in Super Bowl: +3000 (3.2%)

Win Super Bowl: +3300 (2.9%)

While the odds for the Vikings making the playoffs (-135 / 57.4%) are better than the odds they miss the playoffs, the odds also strongly favor an early exit from the playoffs as well. Packers, Bucs, and Rams have the best odds to be playing in the NFC Conference Championship, primarily as they’re also favorites to win their divisions.

Individual Award Odds

The Vikings also have a number of players- and coach- listed for individual honors, as well as several with over/under performance odds.

Kevin O’Connell

Coach of the Year: +700 (12.5%)

COY is typically given to a new or newer head coach, and KO has the best odds in the league to be named Coach of the Year. That’s also auspicious for the team’s performance.

Danielle Hunter

Defensive Player of the Year: +4000 (2.4%)

Comeback Player of the Year: +6600 (1.5%)

Hunter’s odds in both categories have decreased in the last couple of weeks.

Harrison Smith

Interceptions over/under: 2.5

Eric Kendricks

Tackles & Assists over/under: 125.5

Za’Darius Smith

Defensive Player of the Year: +7500 (1.3%)

Sacks over/under: 10

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Andrew Booth Jr.: +2800 (3.4%)

Lewis Cine: +4000 (2.4%)

Brian Asamoah: +5000 (2%)

Justin Jefferson

Offensive Player of the Year: +900 (10%)

JJ has the second-best odds at OPOY behind Jonathan Taylor at +700 (12.5%).

MVP: +12500

Most Receiving TDs: +900 (10%) - 5th best

Most Receiving Yards: +700 (12.5%) - league favorite

Receiving yards over/under: 1350.5 - highest in the league

TDs over/under: 9.5

Receptions over/under: 100.5

Dalvin Cook

Offensive Player of the Year: +3300 (2.9%)

MVP: +15000 (0.7%)

Most Rushing TDs: +1000 (9.1%) - tied for 4th best

Most Rushing Yards: +1000 (9.1%) - tied for 3rd best

Dalvin Cook most receiving TDs: +15000 (0.7%)

Rush and receiving yards over/under: 1500.5

Rush yards over/under: 1150.5

Rush TDs over/under: 9.5

Kirk Cousins

Offensive Player of the Year: +8000 (1.2%)

MVP: +4000 (2.4%)

Most Interceptions: +4000 (2.4%)

Most Passing TDs: +2000 (4.8%)

Most Passing Yards: +1800 (5.3%)

Kirk Cousins interceptions over/under: 10.5

Kirk Cousins passing TDs over/under: 31.5

Kirk Cousins passing yards over/under: 4150.5

Kirk’s odds have been improving in recent weeks for OPOY and MVP.

Adam Thielen

Receiving TDs over/under: 7.5

Receiving yards over/under: 750.5

Receptions over/under: 70.5

Most receiving TDs: +2500 (3.8%)

Most receiving yards: +10000 (1%)

Irv Smith Jr.

Irv Smith Jr. receiving TDs over/under: 4.5

Irv Smith Jr. receiving yards over/under: 525.5

Irv Smith Jr. receptions over/under: 50.5

Vikings’ Specials

Bovada also put together some special Vikings-related combo bets.

• Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Irv Smith Jr. combine for over 20.5 receiving TDs: +100 (50% chance)
• Vikings to score over 420.5 regular season points: +100 (50% chance)
• Kirk Cousins over 30.5 passing TDs and Dalvin Cook over 10.5 rushing TDs: +325 (23.5%)
• Justin Jefferson over 1500.5 receiving yards and 11.5 receiving TDs: +550 (15.4%)
• Justin Jefferson to have at least one 200+ yard receiving game: +550 (15.4%)
• Vikings win NFC North and Dalvin Cook at least 1199.5 rushing yards: +550 (15.4%)
• Dalvin Cook to rush for 200 yards in any one regular season game: +1000 (9.1%)
• Justin Jefferson to break single season receiving yards record - over 1964.5 receiving yards: +1100 (8.3%)
• Vikings reach NFC Championship and Justin Jefferson has over 9.5 receiving TDs: +1100 (8.3%)
• Kirk Cousins most passing yards and Adam Thielen over 7.5 receiving TDs: +3000 (3.2%)

So What Does All This Mean?

The upshot of all the Vikings odds are that the sports betting community thinks the Vikings will likely have a typical Vikings’ season: maybe a game or so above .500, on the cusp of the playoffs, more likely than not to make them, but unlikely to go very far.

Justin Jefferson may be the best receiver in the league, and Kevin O’Connell the best new coach, but beyond that, there may be a few other talented players but an average team overall.