FanPost

First Mock/ Offseason Plan - We're Closer Than You Think

Welcome to MThon77’s first stab at the offseason.

There are a few moves that I think are obvious and probably won’t change from plan to plan, so I’m going to start with those.

Cut the following players:

  • Kendricks – frees up 9.5
  • Hicks – frees up 5M
  • Ham – frees up 3M
  • Cook – frees up 6M
  • Blacklock – frees up 1.7M

These moves free up 25.2M, which essentially gets us cap compliant since we’re starting out at -24M. I honestly don’t think any of them would garner any trade value. Cook would MAYBE fetch a late day 3 pick, but I doubt it. It’s just a strong free agent class AND a strong draft class for RB. If we would rather cut Cook and pay Mattison a couple mil or draft a day 2-3 RB, why wouldn’t everyone else want to do the same? Since I prefer to be conservative with my plans rather than over-valuing our players, I’m going to say they all just get cut.

I think the second tier of potential moves is a little more nuanced, and there are a few ways to skin this cat.

  • Reed – he could free up another 2.5M in space if cut, which isn’t a ton, but it’s not nothing either. He was serviceable down the stretch, but he was only our #3 center. Potential Cap Savings – 2.5M.
  • AT – Thielen is a long-time stalwart of the team and the home-town favorite hero story. Unfortunately, his best days are behind him, and he’s a fringe WR2/high WR3 at this point. He’s said "I want to be able to help a team & show I can play at a high level to help them win. Will that be in Minnesota? I don't know, I hope so. I hope to retire a Minnesota Viking". Cutting/ trading Thielen would only save 6.4M on the books this year. HOWEVER, it would clear ALL of his 21.6M cap hit in 2024. I would say he is our #3 receiving option AT BEST. JJ and Hock are taking up all of the attention, so why isn’t AT open more? His stat line was 70 receptions on 107 targets for 716 yards with 6 TDs. Osborn had 60 receptions on 90 targets for 650 yards with 5 TDs. Hockenson piled up 60 receptions on 86 targets for 519 yards and 3 TDs over ONLY TEN games. It’s a pretty weak free agent class for WRs, so Thielen might command some minimal trade value. Cap Savings - 6.4M.
  • Harrison Smith – he is very similar to Thielen. Long-time cornerstone of the team. Like Thielen, moving on from Smith would have limited cap savings this year, but would open up significant space next year (19.2M). Smith is 34, and plays at a low-value position, so I don’t think there would be any kind of trade market for him. However, he’s still playing at a pretty high level, and I think his strengths fit what Flores wants. My guess is that they do some sort of restructure or pay cut for Smith. Get him some more guaranteed money, but lower his cap hit this year and potentially void the remainder of his contract - going year to year moving forward. Potential Cap Savings – 7.4M.
  • Za’Darius Smith – The ZDS that started 2022 is absolutely worth the 15.5M cap hit. The ZDS that finished 2022, probably not. I think his medicals are going to be a big question, as well as how much cap space we need/ what other moves we make. ZDS could be cut or traded for 12M in cap space. I think there would be a trade market for ZDS, especially if we agreed to eat another couple million in space. Potential Cap Savings – 12M.
  • DJ Wonnum – I personally don’t see much in Wonnum. He’s a serviceable rotation player, and can start in case of injury or emergency. However, I don’t see him as part of the long-term plan and he’s absolutely behind Jones on the depth chart. I think he might garner some late day 3 trade value, just based on his athleticism and the fact that he has had some decent production. If someone is willing to trade for Stephen Weatherly or Jesse Davis, we can probably trade Wonnum. Cap Savings – 2.75M.
  • Danielle Hunter – Feels like we’re always discussing Hunter the last few years with his injuries. He bounced back from his injured years in a big way, and is on the last year of his deal. Hunter hasn’t been afraid to make some noise about his contract when he feels like he isn’t getting paid enough. He’s set to make just 5.5M this year. I think he’s looking for one more big deal, and I don’t know if he gets that here or not. He’s an elite player, but I don’t know how well he fits in the Flores scheme. I would try to extend Hunter, but it’s very possible he wants to try playing elsewhere and requests a trade. It would have to be a pretty decent haul though, because trading Hunter would cost an extra 5M in cap space since it would accelerate his void years.

Restructures/ Extensions:

  • Brian O’Neill – BO is the easiest restructure candidate. He’s our second best lineman at a premium position, and is going to be around for a while. We can free up 10M by pushing that into future years. Cap Savings – 10M.
  • Kirko Cousins – I know. Probably half of you just nearly had an aneurism. I don’t think QB is on the menu in the 2023 draft. I doubt Richardson falls anywhere near where we could get him, and I don’t think Hooker/ McKee are future franchise guys. I would do another short extension for Cousins if he’ll take it for another year. That way you can draft your QB in 2024, sit him for a year behind Cousins, and then hand the reigns over as JJ’s cap hit jumps into QB territory. Cousins has shown he’s willing to go year-to-year to keep up with the QB market, so I think he would be on board. I WON’T DO THAT TODAY, but would assume if we did – 1 year deal with similar cap savings. Potential Cap Savings – 15M.

************** THIS SCENARIO/ MOCK ***************

I’m going to assume that we 1) cut the first batch, 2) restructure BO, 3) trade Thielen, 4) cut Reed, 5) negotiate a pay cut for Harrison Smith to reduce his cap hit by 5M, and 6) trade Wonnum. So ballpark math, this would give us an additional 24M in cap space for this season. The draft class is projected to cost 6M, so we’ll say we have 19M in cap space to work with for 2023.

FREE AGENCY –

Departures: Bradbury, Udoh, Bullard, DePaola, Ellefson, Irv Smith, Bisi Johnson, Mattison, Pat Pete, Schlottman, Sullivan, Willekes. Basically letting everyone walk. Time to clean house.

Re-sign: Duke Shelley (1.5M cap hit), Nick Mullens (2M?), MAYBE Dalvin Tomlinson (not sure what cap hit would be, but since it would push void year hits out, so probably net neutral or minimal increase in 2023).

With 15.5M left in cap space, we can bring in a decent number of solid veterans. My suggested roster moves leave us missing: Two LBs, RB1, WR3, and depth at DE/ IOL. Here are some ballpark moves I would make (market value is from Spotrac, and cap hits/ deal structure suggestions courtesy of MarkSP).

  • Dalton Risner OG/C. 9.5M AAV – I think Risner would add some versatility to the OL AND flexibility in the draft in replacing Bradbury. He’s played center and guard, and notably his pass blocking grade is significantly better than his run blocking grade. Since we passed the ball 64% of our plays last year, I’m ok with that trade-off. I think he would give us the flexibility to add a guard or center in the draft based on how the board falls and would be able to potentially start at center or compete with Cleveland/ Ingram for a starting guard spot. I also think Isaac Seeumalo would fill the exact same role, and is even better, but his projected AAV is 12.1M. Sign Risner to a 3 yr 28.5M deal with one void year. Cap hits of 3.58M, 10.42M, 12M, and 2.5M. 2023 Cap Hit ~3.5M

  • Eric Rowe S/ slot CB: 3M AAV – Has played a hybrid role as a safety/ slot corner and has played for Flores. Cheap addition to the secondary that is familiar with the scheme – likely replaces Sullivan. Sign Rowe to a 2 yr 6M deal. Cap hits of 2.665M and 3.335M. 2023 Cap Hit - 2.665M.

  • Cam Sutton CB: 7.6M AAV – Another CB that has played for Flores – Sutton would compete for an outside CB role and would replace Pat Pete, who probably isn’t as good a fit in a more man-heavy defensive role. I think he’s a fringe starter/ would compete with Dantzler, Booth, and Evans for an outside spot. 2-3 year deal. 2023 Cap Hit Estimate – 4M.

  • Leighton Vander Esch or Bobby Okereke LB - 5M AAV? – Either of these players would be a decent veteran LB to bring in to replace Kendricks. I think Asamoah is primed to replace Hicks, but I would still bring in a decent veteran. They aren’t on the top tier like TJ Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, or Pratt, but they’re definitely in Tier 2, and would be upgrades over Kendricks/ Hicks. 3 yr 18M deal. Cap hits of 3.08M, 6.9M, and 8M. 2023 Cap Hit ~ 3M.

  • Zach Allen IDL: 9.3M AAV – Zach Allen is a bit of a risk. He struggled the first few years and took a big step up last year. He’s young and most importantly offers some significant pass-rush upside on the interior, which is something our defense sorely lacks. I think the Spotrac estimate on this one is kind of low, but we’ll see. 3 yr 30M deal with one void year. Cap hits of 3.58M, 11.42M, 12.5M, and 2.5M. 2023 Cap Hit ~ 3.6M.

TOTAL 2023 CAP HIT: 17M

I managed to sign all these guys WITHOUT extending Cousins or cutting ZDS. If we REALLY want to go wild and bring in more free agents (or more expensive/ better ones), we absolutely can. I also expect some extensions for Hock, JJ, Hunter, etc., so there might be a few more moves we need to make, but I’ll just leave that for now. This is the rough draft, and I’m not the cap wizard like Mark, so I’m going to get close and call it good. Close counts for horseshoes, hand grenades, and my cap math.

TO THE DRAFT!!:

In this exercise, I’ve traded Thielen to the Giants for a 6th – pick 209 and future conditional 6th, and Wonnum to the Texans for a 7th, Pick 239.

We therefore enter the draft with 7 picks: 23, 87, 119, 160, 177, 209, and 239. Notably, we also enter the draft without any massive glaring holes on the roster, so all of you BPA folks can rejoice. I would probably rank our needs at this point as WR, IOL, LB, DL, RB, CB.

TRADE – Chiefs!!

Vikings send 23 and 87 for 31, 63, 122, and 168.

Chiefs may or may not be able to keep Orlando Brown Jr., and Andrew Wylie has been pretty mediocre at RT. They have a TON of later-round draft capital (they have 12 total picks), so they fork over some of that to jump up and draft one of the top OTs in this draft in Anton Harrison. O’Cyrus Torrence was already off the board, I didn’t love the WR options, and it’s too early for the DL I like here, so I drop back a little.

Round 1 Pick 31:

Darnell Wright, OT. Tennessee. 6’6, 335 pounds.

Darnell Wright - Football - University of Tennessee Athletics

WHAT?! I know, I know. How can we need an offensive tackle with our first pick? Here’s my thoughts: He was the best OL available, and I think he’s being slept on. The last OT/G I loved out of Tennessee turned out pretty great in Trey Smith, so as a fake GM, I'm not missing out this time. Wright has experience playing LT, RT, and RG in college, and I expect he would compete for a starting guard spot. He was a 5-star recruit out of high school, has elite power, he’s much bigger than Cleveland and Ingram (need more beef), has improved every year, and had a phenomenal year pass blocking. He only allowed 8 pressures and no sacks the entire year in the SEC going up against NFL-level competition. He absolutely stonewalled Will Anderson, and that’s not something many OT’s could do. While I view him as an immediate fit at guard, he’s also insurance for RT in case O’Neill’s Achilles tendon surgery takes longer to recover from or if he’s not the same guy he used to be afterward. I haven’t heard a single peep about O’Neill in the media, and Achilles injuries can be tough to recover from. In the event that O’Neill isn’t ready to go, Wright slots in immediately at right tackle (Brandel is serviceable, but I haven't forgotten what not having a good plan looked like with Darrisaw's injury). If O’Neill is good to go, Wright competes with Ingram and Cleveland for a guard spot immediately, and we potentially can consider him as a replacement at RT for O’Neill in 2025 when his cap hit balloons over 22M. Advanced and underrated hand usage. Very patient blocker, and a fan of the snatch-trap, much like Darrisaw. One other thing I like and notice – listen to the Brandon Thorn clip – these Tennessee guys have been doing a great job of being coached up to be finishers and set the tone at the LOS. We need to improve the OL before we can be actual contenders.

Baby Darrisaw

Thorn Interview

Round 2 Pick 63:

Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL. Northwestern. 6’1, 284 pounds.

Northwestern's football defensive line holds Ohio's run game at bay

Adebawore is a bit of a project, and he’s a tweener in size, but he’s a monstrous athlete, and I think he eventually adds some more of the pass rush juice our DL lacks. He has outstanding get-off on the line of scrimmage. He lined up at DE and inside at DT for Northwestern, and he explodes off the ball. Routinely the first guy moving, he has a red-hot motor and a fairly advanced package of pass-rush moves. I think he has the traits to go in the first round, but with limited production he probably slides to the second. He blew up at Senior Bowl, showcasing both power and speed. I think he fits perfectly in an aggressive, single-gap responsibility defense like Flores runs, and can be moved around to create mismatches on obvious passing downs. I think he’s not quite bendy enough to be a true edge and he’s not quite powerful enough to be a 3T in a normal 4-3, so I don’t think he cracks the first-round conversation. However, I think he fits perfectly as a weakside 5T.

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Round 4 Pick 119:

Jonathan Mingo, WR. Ole Miss. 6’2, 225 pounds.

Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss | NFL Draft Scouting Report

I go for a big-bodied WR out of Ole Miss, because that’s never gone poorly for us. The difference between Mingo and Treadwell is that Mingo is actually an athlete and can catch. You know, with his hands. He’s fast, has some really solid YAC ability, runs good routes, and pops on film as a great blocker. Should compete with KJ and Nailor to be WR 2/3 in our offense. Not a 4.3 burner, but he’s definitely faster than old man Thielen at this point.

Not Treadwell

Seriously, Not Treadwell

Round 4 Pick 122:

Mekhi Garner, CB. LSU. 6’2 218 pounds.

BREAKING: LSU DB Mekhi Garner Declares For 2023 NFL Draft - Sports  Illustrated LSU Tigers News, Analysis and More.

Garner is a rocked-up CB who plays with a physical edge. Absolutely needs to work on technique and not commit quite so hard – he got shaken out of his boots a few times at the Shrine Bowl and over-set on some of his press jams, but he’s got solid speed and pushes WRs around on release. Sounds like the kind of guy Flores can work on for a year or two. With his size and physicality, he could potentially slide into the slot in a more blitz-heavy role too.

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Round 5 Pick 160:

Isreal Abanikanda, Pitt. 5’11, 215 pounds.

I mentioned pretty regularly on various threads that we need to replace Cook, and bringing Mattison back isn’t it. Cook is aging, expensive, and at this point, I think the best drafting strategy is to throw a few darts on day 3 with some regularity. Izzy is explosive. When he hits a hole you can literally see him kick it into a different gear. He’s one of the younger draft prospects, having just turned 20. Displays great balance, but could improve on vision and being more decisive at the point of attack.

RB go zoom

Full Zoom

Round 5 Pick 168:

Atonio Mafi, OG. UCLA. 6’3, 338 pounds.

Image

Mafi is MY DUDE in this class for OL on Day 3. A former 400+ pound DT, Mafi has only played 3 years of college OL, and his tape is littered with highlight reel pancakes. De-cleating folks left and right. I highlighted him in my trenches post about Senior/ Shrine Bowl risers, and he looked great at Shrine Bowl. He needs to tighten up his footwork, and I think if he could get down to the 325-330 pound range it would help him with his second level blocks. That said, I don’t think Cleveland is a long-term solution at guard and Ingram had a really rough first year. They both struggle mightily with pass protection, which isn’t ideal when you pass 64% of the time. More darts need to be thrown at the OL until we have a top 10 ish unit. We need to keep Kirk upright, and just as importantly, build a solid unit for the next guy to develop behind. The fastest way to ruin a young QB is to put them behind a porous OL.

Pain Train

Seriously Draft This Guy

Fix the OL or Riot

Round 5 Pick 177:

SirVocea Dennis, LB. Pitt. 6’1, 230 pounds.

2023 NFL Draft prospect profile - SirVocea Dennis, LB, Pittsburgh - Big  Blue View

Doubling down on the Pitt production, I grab one of their top defenders. An all-around solid LB, and an especially good blitzer, Dennis adds decent depth behind Asamoah and whichever vet we go after – LVE or Okereke. He’s had 4+ sacks as an off-ball LB for 3 seasons straight, tallying 4, 4, and 7 in the last 3 seasons. Solid but not spectacular in coverage, I think he probably goes higher than this, but he’s the exact type of LB Flores would want with his explosive ability to come downhill off the snap.

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Round 6 Pick 209:

Brenton Cox Jr. OLB. Florida. 6’4, 253 pounds.

Brenton Cox dismissed from Florida Gators by Billy Napier

Cox is a bit of a controversial pick. He has all the physical tools to be a legitimate 3-4 OLB and has the talent to be selected much earlier than this. Former five star recruit, he got offers for all the major programs before settling on Georgia. He’s got solid pass rush, a great first step and burst off the line and agility. Doesn’t have elite straight-line speed, so he’s not the best at running down plays, but he causes problems at the line of scrimmage. He has a decent arsenal of pass rush moves including a solid spin move. I expect he’ll slide down the boards though since he was dismissed from TWO college programs. He got the boot from Georgia AND Florida. Attitude and effort can be questionable at times, and he’s had multiple on-field altercations. Normally I would say character concerns are a no-go, but it didn’t stop Kwesi from drafting Ingram, so who knows. In the 6th though, the upside is worth the risk, so I take a chance.

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Round 7 Pick 239:

DeWayne McBride, RB. UAB. 5’11, 225 pounds.

University of Alabama at Birmingham Athletics

Since we’re moving on from Cook, I wanted to add one more – instead of dumping big bucks into a low value position, lean into the running back by committee approach. Chandler, Nwangwu, and Izzy have the speed game covered, but I wanted someone with a little more thunder. He was 2nd in the nation in rushing yards last year with 1,700(!!!!) yards. Over 3 seasons (two as a full-time starter), his LOWEST YPC was 6.7. Of his 1,700 yards, he had a whopping 1,072 yards AFTER contact, and he had 45 runs of 10+ yards. He is not a guy that gets brought down by arm tackles. However, he wasn’t utilized at all as a receiving threat – he has a TOTAL of 5 receptions over his two years as a starter, so I would expect him to be available Day 3. If I’ve learned anything from the success of Pacheco, Dameon Pierce, and Bam Knight the last year – find a guy who runs angry and give him the rock. Nwangwu may be replaceable. He hasn’t had any offensive impact or usage with two completely different coaching staffs, and he wasn’t nearly as impactful as a returner this year. Between the 4 backs, we should be able to field a decent RB room.

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CONCLUSION:

There you have it folks. A couple minor pre-draft trades, and ONE in-draft trade for chart value and we walk out of the draft with 9 picks. The NFL isn’t a league where it takes forever to fix a team unless you’re truly bereft of talent, and that’s not the case here.

I think the trenches need to be an emphasis in this draft especially on offense. Free agency is a great time to shore up some of our bigger defensive weaknesses for relatively cheap, and take shots on high-upside playmakers via the draft. I would expect 2023 or 2024 to be the last year of Kirk, and I don’t want to bring a rookie in to take the same kind of pounding Kirk has had behind this OL.

I think in this draft at a minimum we get a starting OL, potentially two (pending BO recovery), a starting RB, and solid rotational value from Adebawore and Mingo. I think if Tomlinson walks, AA would get a pretty significant support role with a chance to lock down a starting 5T job – and I think our obvious passing down package would be BONKERS. Hunter, Adebawore, Allen, ZDS, and Jones/ Cox. Sign me UP for that nascar package.

Thoughts? What do you like and what don’t you like?


This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.