Hey Vikings Fans!
I posted a few days ago about the Vikings taking a QB at some point in the draft. Lots of fantastic points, and very valid perspectives. That is the difficult thing about roster work, there is no perfect solution. So much has to go into it, and a fanpost (by me) isn't going to cover it all.
I do want to talk about other teams that are also looking at QB. This greatly impacts the Vikings ability to be able to acquire one on Day 1 or 2 in the draft. How great is the ask for Richardson to fall to 23? Will it even be hard to get a later prospect like Hooker or someone else on Day 2 or 3?
Let's get started, while keeping in mind, I am a football fan, not an actual GM. I hope you weren't confused before I clarified. I have bolded those teams I think are QB needy teams, and will draft one. Depends on a lot of things, like FA and potential trades.
Pick 1 - Chicago. No way they use this pick on a QB. No matter what you hear out there, they are quite happy with Fields. They have to be. He is a dual threat, who has a great desire to win. Most likely trade it for a kings ransom and fill many holes on their roster with the rewards. My guess is lots of OL and offensive weapons to help him succeed.
Pick 2 - Houston. QB. They can't ignore this position any longer.
Pick 3 - Arizona. They aren't done with Kyler yet (not at the time of this post). While they aren't super happy with him (in my opinion), they are not ready to try to find a new QB. As good as Chicago's position is to trade back, I won't be surprised at all if Arizona does as well. It is a possibility that the first three picks in the draft are all QB.
Pick 4 - Indianapolis. QB. They can get one of the top three prospects. They will definitely do that!
Pick 5 - Seattle. I don't think they go QB here, however, I don't think they believe Geno is the long term answer. Geno is a FA this year I believe, so they may very well move on from him, though I expect them to extend him. We shall see. QB is a need, but I see them wanting to use this pick elsewhere.
Pick 6 - Detroit. They are staying with Goff for the time being. They can get a game changer at this position, and will use it in a place other than quarterback.
Pick 7 - Vegas. Goodbye Carr, hello new quarterback! Not sure if they plan to draft, or sign a FA. I suspect the later (or trade for Rodgers...PLEASE!!!). They have some talent on offense and some on defence, they aren't burning it to the ground, and won't want to waste Adams time with them.
Pick 8 - Atlanta. Ridder isn't the answer in my humble opinion. I know he is still fresh, but they need an upgrade here. I suspect they will work to trade up, but who knows.
Pick 9 - Carolina. The experiment of the last year, or more is over. New coach, new QB. They will draft one of the top three, or move up to make it happen (which is probably absolutely necessary).
Pick 10 - Philadelphia. The are probably fine with their QB...(I don't know how to do the sarcasm font...).
Pick 11 - Tennessee. Tricky call here. If one of the top three falls to them, which won't happen, they would definitely draft him. The may draft Richardson here as well. Lots of potential, just not as "sure" as the other three, for what that is worth. I can see them liking a pocket passer like Tanner McKee as well to pair with the run attack. They will definitely look hard at QB, though they may stay with who they currently have (Yikes!).
Pick 12 - Houston! Again! They have already drafted their QB by this point.
Pick 13 - New York Jets. Wilson's time in NY seems to be at an end. They are looking to take another stab, as they have so much talent they have recently accrued. Now is the time!
Pick 14 - New England. They definitely want an upgrade from Mac Jones, but I doubt they can find it early. They will look at later prospects to be sure.
Pick 15 - Green Bay. Let's hope they are QB needy, but at this point, they aren't.
Pick 16 - Washington. They need a QB. As much as many Vikings fans like the idea of Heinicke rising to starter, he is just too inconsistent, and can put his team in a bad position. He is a great backup, as he can come in and win games, but he isn't a long term answer.
Pick 17 - Pittsburgh. They are good to run with Kenny for next season, as there was a lot of improvement in his game. Interesting to see what his second season looks like!
Pick 18 - Detroit... Again. The only way this is used for a QB is if Richardson falls, and I don't even think they would choose a QB over other position needs.
Pick 19 - Tampa. Well, the GOAT is gone (for now??). QB please!
Pick 20 - Seattle. Also again. Same comment as Detroit's at pick 18. They would like to find a higher upside prospect, but doubtful they get one here.
Pick 21 - Los Angeles Chargers. Herbert, nuff said.
Pick 22 - Baltimore. Well they sure shouldn't need a QB. Not sure what will happen with Lamar, but even if they traded him or something, there would be a QB in return, so no possible need here.
Pick 23 - YOUR MINNESOTA VIKINGS. Kirk will be at the helm in 2023. Maybe a pick for Richardson if he falls this far. McKee is a pocket passer, and our OLine... yikes. Too many other needs at this pick, though I feel they will take one later in the draft.
Pick 24 - Jacksonville. TL.
Pick 25 - New York Giants. Jones is apparently a FA. I thought he had one more year, but no, the Giants declined the 5th year option. Apparently, they were working on an extension for him, but no one knows where that is at currently. My assumption is that they are going to extend, and keep rolling with Jones and build around him! This will be Jones last chance in NY if he doesn't show more improvement.
Pick 26 - Dallas. No QB here. As much as Cowboys fans complain about Dak (they sound like Packers fans, don't they?), he is their QB for the foreseeable future.
Pick 27 - Buffalo. They Allen good.
Pick 28 - Bengals. They are going to stick with Mr. Burrow
Pick 29 - New Orleans. They just acquired this pick, thanks Sean Payton and the Broncos. NO needs a QB. Without a doubt. Winston will not survive too long.
Pick 30/31 - KC and Phi. No QB's for either of these teams.
Cleveland. They will stick with Watson for now. Though he didn't have a great end of season, so it will be interesting to watch the next year for him. (On a personal note, I'm not cheering for him to succeed).
Denver. They will hope Sean can work some magic with Wilson and will roll with him for another year to be sure. They gave up too much for him to ever think about him not being their quarterback for the start of this season.
LA Rams. I don't think Stafford is the answer, so they may look for a later prospect, but I think they have too many other holes (crazy to think that they just won the Super Bowl a year ago...).
Miami. Apparently Tua has cleared concussion protocols, so he is their guy, until we hear otherwise. They may want some insurance, but I doubt that comes in the draft.
San Francisco. Who knows! But seriously, they are keeping Trey and Brock, and will roll with that. Paid a lot for Trey, and had too much success with Brock.
So those teams I bolded that will, in my estimation, look to draft a qb this year are:
7- New York Jets
8 - New England
9 - Washington
10 - Tampa Bay
11 - New Orleans
12 - maybe Rams or Dolphins
13 - maybe Seattle
Ten of those teams are ahead of the Vikings in the first round (didn't count Seattle, but maybe I should). TEN. There is discussion of maybe Richardson falling to the Vikings at 23. NOT A CHANCE. He is regarded too favourably at this time, and even if that wanes prior to the draft, some team ahead of the Vikings will take the chance on him. It will only take one team to draft him.
QB is the most important position on the field. Too many teams need one. Too many teams are ahead of Minnesota for them to have any chance at one of the top four quarterbacks in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised if 5 go before their pick at 23.
The last thought that greatly impacts this is what about Free Agents and Trades.
Not too many appealing starting QB's are Free Agents...
1 - Daniel Jones.
2 - Jimmy Garoppolo
3 - Tom Brady...
4 - Baker
5 - Darnold
6 - Teddy.
7 - Geno Smith.
After this the list is very short. Keenum, Brissett, Dalton, Heinicke... Yikes. Geno might be the best on the list, though I expect the Seahawks to resign him.
Lastly, Trades. Very hard to predict, though it looks like Carr is the almost certainty to be traded, but they may cut him and add him to the FA market. Rodgers? Who knows what that whiny baby wants besides press and attention. I hope he just retires and ends all of the drama. But then there would be no drama... So yeah, he'll be back. Somewhere...
Interesting exercise going through all these teams. So many need to upgrade their QB position, and most will not be able to do it this year. Will the Vikings draft a QB this year? Disagree or agree with my breakdown? Alternative point of view? Give me your thoughts below, I welcome them, as it only helps me learn more as well.