The 2023 NFL Draft kicks off from Kansas City two weeks from tomorrow, and the rumor mill is starting to crank itself up in anticipation of this year’s selection meeting getting underway. Despite the fact that they have just five picks in this year’s Draft and a lot of spots that still need to be filled, there continues to be speculation that the Minnesota Vikings are actually interested in trading up in the interests of acquiring their quarterback of the future.
Personally, I think that’s nonsense and, if anything, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and company are going to be looking to trade down on the Draft’s first night, potentially moving themselves all the way out of the first round. But if the Vikings did want to move up for a quarterback, what would it cost them?
Well, it would be a lot.
If any team wants to move up for a quarterback, their target is going to have to be the Arizona Cardinals at #3. Why? Well, because the Carolina Panthers hold the #1 pick, having moved up to that spot in a deal with Chicago, and they’re almost certainly taking a quarterback after a deal like that. The Houston Texans sit in the #2 spot and it would be shocking if they didn’t go quarterback at that spot, too. Neither of those teams are trading out of those two spots, and if you want to get the quarterback of your choice. . .which will already be the third QB off the board. . .you’ll have to get ahead of the Indianapolis Colts at #4, because they’re likely taking a quarterback, too.
If you look at the new Rich Hill trade chart (which is generally thought to be more accurate than the old-school Jimmy Johnson chart), the #3 overall pick is worth 514 points. The Vikings’ entire complement of five picks in this year’s draft is worth 330. The #23 pick is, specifically, worth 245 points, which is less than half of the value of #3.
Since I sincerely doubt that the Vikings want to pull a Mike Ditka/Ricky Williams scenario and trade their entire draft for the right to pick one guy (that likely won’t even contribute in 2023), you’re now getting into the realm of future picks. According to Rich’s own description of the chart, there is no “perfect” value for trading future picks, but I think we can assume that the Cardinals would likely be looking for the Vikings’ first-round picks in 2024 and 2025. Why? Because they know that the Vikings would be moving up for a quarterback, which would bring the price for such a move up.
That means you’re, essentially, looking at three first-round picks for the right to move up to select a quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft. And then you don’t pick again until at least #87 overall in the third round (if the Cardinals don’t demand that pick as part of the package, too). I suppose that you could also include players in the deal, like Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Cook, or. . .if we’re completely losing our minds here. . .Danielle Hunter, but the Cardinals would have to have an interest in doing that, too.
I’m just not seeing it. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think the chances of it happening are that good at all. I still think the most likely scenario for the Vikings in Round 1 involves them moving down, not up.
Do you think the Vikings are going to be willing to pay that sort of price to get themselves into the position they’d need to get into to select a top quarterback prospect in this year’s Draft? Let us know what you think!