The Bookmakers Mock Draft

There are mock drafts and more mock drafts, but here is a first-round mock draft based on money flows and the resulting odds given by oddsmakers in the sports betting industry. This mock draft is a composite of those odds as compiled by various sites including Caesars sportsbook, Sportsbetting.ag, Draftkings, and Fanduel. Odds are as of 4/17-18.

#1: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama, SEC

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Young is becoming the prohibited favorite to go #1 overall, with odds of -1200 to -1500, implying around 90% probability he’s selected first.

#2: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama, SEC

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Speculation that the Texans, who have the second pick, may not pick a quarterback have increased in recent days, and the odds now have Will Anderson Jr. as the favorite. He’s +150 at Draftkings, +210 on Fanduel, and +200 on Sportsbetting. He’s only the narrow favorite, however, as quarterbacks CJ Stroud and Will Levis have only slightly less favorable odds to be selected here.

#3: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State, B1G

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Arizona has the #3 pick and who gets picked here depends on whether a trade is made or not. Stroud being taken here suggests Arizona trades this pick. The most likely candidates for a trade are the Raiders at #7 and the Titans at #11. Stroud is the favorite at +200 to be selected third at Sportsbetting, +250 at Fanduel (tied with Anthony Richardson and Will Anderson Jr.), while Draftkings has taken odds for the third pick off. I’m assuming the Raiders are the team that trades up here, as the Titans are favored to draft Anthony Richardson. Stroud is also the favorite at -135 to be the second QB drafted at Draftkings.

#4: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky, SEC

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The Colts have the #4 pick and are the favorite to draft Will Levis at +100 at Draftkings and +150 at Fanduel. Levis is also the favorite to be selected #4 overall at Fanduel (+175) and Draftkings (+165). He’s also -150 to be taken under pick 6 on Sportsbetting, and the favorite at -105 to be the third quarterback drafted on Draftkings.

#5: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech, Big-12

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Seattle retains this pick and is -250 to pick a defensive lineman/edge rusher with their first pick according to Draftkings and -200 at Caesars, which implies around 70% probability. Wilson and Will Anderson are the favorites to be picked 5th at +250 on Fanduel while Wilson is the slight favorite at +180 on Sportsbetting. Given Anderson was taken second here, that leaves Wilson as the clear favorite. Wilson is also -175 to be taken under pick 5.5 on Sportsbetting.

#6: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois, B1G

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The Lions pick 6th and are -250 (71% probability) to take a cornerback with their first pick according to Draftkings and Caesars. Witherspoon is the favorite at +105 to be taken at #6 at Caesars and also -225 to be the first cornerback taken in the draft. He’s -110 to be drafted sixth at Fanduel and -120 on Draftkings. He’s also -180 to be taken under pick 7.5 at Caesars, -160 at Draftkings, and -155 at Sportbetting.ag.

#7: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon, Pac-12

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Arizona trades back with the Raiders for this pick. Gonzalez is the favorite to be picked 7th on Fanduel and Caesars (+250). He’s also the favorite at -140 on Draftkings to be the second cornerback drafted.

#8: Bijon Robinson, RB, Texas, Big-12

Atlanta picks 8th and is the favorite to draft Robinson at +200 on Draftkings. He’s also the favorite at +250 to be selected 8th on Fanduel (tied with Nolan Smith).

#9: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia, SEC

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The Bears pick 9th and are -180 to take an offensive lineman with their first pick, and +180 to take a defensive lineman/edge rusher at Draftkings. However, Fanduel has them as the favorite to draft Carter at +250 and also has Carter as the favorite to be drafted #9 at +250. Draftkings has Seattle as the favorite at +200 and the Bears second (w Lions) at +380.

The way I would interpret this is that Carter has a higher probability of being taken prior to #9, in which case the Bears go OL, but if he’s available at #9 the Bears will draft him.

#10: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern, B1G

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The Eagles pick 10th and are favored between -160 and -175 to pick an offensive lineman with their first pick according to Draftkings. Skoronski is also -170 to go under pick 11.5 and is -105 to be the first offensive lineman drafted. Fanduel also has Skoronski as the favorite to be drafted #10 at +175.

#11: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida, SEC

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The Titans are the favorite to draft Richardson at +200 on Draftkings and Fanduel. Richardson is also -300 to go over pick 4.5.

#12: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State, B1G

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The Texans pick twelfth and are the slight favorite to select Smith-Njigba on Fanduel at +450. He’s also -280 to be the first wide receiver selected on Fanduel. His over/under is 12.5.

#13: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State, B1G

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The Jets have this pick and are -265 (73% probability) to go offensive lineman with their first pick. Johnson is as -145 to be drafted over pick 10.5 and is favored to be the second offensive lineman drafted.

#14: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia, SEC

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The Patriots pick 14th and are +250 to pick a cornerback, wide receiver, or offensive lineman on Fanduel. Caesars has them at +190 for a wide receiver, +200 for an offensive lineman, and +250 for a cornerback. But with Smith-Njigba off the board, and the over/under on Jones lower than Joey Porter Jr., the next cornerback available, the Patriots go with Jones.

#15: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia, SEC

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The Packers pick here and are favored at +175 at Draftkings to go defensive lineman/edge rusher with their first pick and +200 Fanduel. Tight end is a close second (+200 and +300 at Draftkings and Fanduel). Over/under odds on edge rushers after Anderson and Wilson have been taken down over the past 24 hours on Draftkings, Fanduel, and Sportbetting, suggesting movement lower over the past day or so.

#16: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State, B1G

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The Commanders pick 16th and are -140 to draft a cornerback with their first pick on Draftkings, +120 at Caesars, and +100 on Fanduel.

#17: Brian Branch, S/CB, Alabama, SEC

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The Steelers pick 17th and are slight favorites to pick a cornerback- +100 CB, +120 OL on Draftkings, +100 CB, +150 OL at Caesars, and +100 CB, +175 OL at Fanduel.

#18: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson, ACC

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The Lions have their second pick at #18. Defensive line/edge rusher was the second-most likely position pick for the Lions’ first pick after cornerback, which they drafted at #6. They draft the position with their second pick. Draftkings had the Lions +200 to draft a DL/ED with their first pick and Caesars had it at +150.

#19: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee, SEC

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Tampa Bay pick 19th and is favored to take an offensive lineman with their first pick at +175 at Draftkings and Fanduel and +150 at Caesars. Wright has a 15.5 over/under at Caesars, with a bias toward the under.

#20: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College, ACC

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Seattle has the 20th pick. Flowers is the favorite as the second wide receiver drafted at +150 on Draftkings, and is -190 to go under pick 22.5 on Caesars, -175 on Draftkings.

#21: Jordan Addison, WR, USC, Pac-12

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The Chargers pick 21st and are favored to take a wide receiver on Fanduel, Draftkings, and Caesars at between +125 and +140. Jordan Addison is also -140 to go under pick 23.5.

#22: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland, B1G

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The Ravens picks 22nd and are favored to take a cornerback on Draftkings (-120) and Caesars (+125).

#23: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia, SEC

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The Vikings pick 23rd and odds are equally divided between wide receiver and cornerback at Fanduel (+175 for both) and Caesars (+190 for both). Draftkings has the Vikings at +175 for wide receiver and +200 for cornerback. So, it comes down to who’s higher on the Vikings board, need, and position value. CB has the edge overall here.

#24: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa, B1G

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Jacksonville picks 24th and is also slightly favored to select a cornerback (+150 at Draftkings, +175 at Fanduel) over defensive lineman (+250 Fanduel, +225 Draftkings), but Van Ness is likely higher on their board than the next available cornerback.

#25: Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU, Big-12

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The Giants pick 25th and are favored to select a wide receiver: -105 at Draftkings, +125 at Fanduel and Caesars. The Giants are the third favorite to draft Johnson (+1000) after the Ravens and Vikings. Johnson’s over/under is 25.5, although biased to the over.

#26: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame, ACC

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Dallas picks 26th and is favored to take a tight-end at +200 on Draftkings and +185 on Fanduel. The Cowboys are also the favorite to draft Mayer (+350 Fanduel) and Mayer is the favorite (-145) to be the first tight end selected on Fanduel.

#27: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa, B1G

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Buffalo picks 27th and is split between wide receiver and linebacker at +250 for both at Fanduel, but favored to take a linebacker (+175) over wide receiver (+330) at Draftkings. Campbell and Drew Sanders are co-favorites (+110) on Sportsbetting to be the first linebacker drafted.

#28: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah, Pac-12

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The Bengals pick #28 and are favored to select a tight end. +130 at Caesars, +125 at Draftkings, and +150 at Fanduel. Kincaid is -155 to be the second tight end drafted on Draftkings.

#29: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson, ACC

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The Saints pick 29th and are favored to take a defensive lineman/edge rusher. -110 at Draftkings and +110 Fanduel. Roster suggest DT a bigger need than Edge. Bresee is the consensus #2 DT behind Jalen Carter.

#30: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt, ACC

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The Eagles pick 30th. Defensive line was their second-most likely position taken first, and they opt to do so here.

#31: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma, Big-12

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The Chiefs pick 31st and are split between offensive and defensive lineman. Fanduel has it as +175 for both, Draftkings has is split between defensive lineman (+150), offensive lineman (+200) and wide receiver (+200). Caesars has it at +150 DL, +190 OL and WR.

This comes down to who the Chiefs have highest on their board here, along with depth at the position and perceived need. OT is an obvious need for the Chiefs.

Other Odds

This oddsmakers mock draft also supports the following odds as well:

• Big-12 players drafted (4): Under 4.5 (-210 Draftkings, -200 Caesars)
• ACC players drafted (5): Over 3.5 (-150 Sportsbetting, Draftkings)
• SEC players drafted (11): Under 11.5 (-245 Draftkings,-250 Sportsbetting)
• B1G players drafted (9): Over 8.5 (-270 Sportsbetting, -265 Draftkings)
• Defensive backs drafted (6): Over 5.5 (-130 Sportbetting, -120 Draftkings, -114 Fanduel)
• Quarterbacks drafted (4): Under 4.5 (-130 Draftkings, -130 Fanduel, -140 Sportsbetting)
• Total defensive players drafted (15): Over 14.5 (-120 Draftkings, -130 Sportsbetting)
• Total offensive players drafted (16): Under 16.5 (-120 Draftkings, -130 Sportsbetting)
• Total tight ends drafted: Under 2.5 (-300 Draftkings, -130 Fanduel)
• Total wide receivers drafted (4): Over 3.5 (-225 Sportsbetting, -120 Draftkings) Under 4.5 (-500 Fanduel)
• Total running backs drafted (1): Under 1.5 (-400 Draftkings, -550 Fanduel, -500 Sportsbetting)

The only other major over/under odds it doesn’t is over 5.5 offensive lineman drafted, which is -230 on Fanduel and -220 on Sportsbetting, and -210 on Draftkings.

Summary

While the odds are fluid and a change in a pick early on can have ramifications all down the line, this is a pretty good composite representation of what the odds currently suggest for the first round of the NFL Draft late next week.