Minnesota Vikings News and Links, 20,21 May 2023

The dog days of the offseason are upon us and finding different things to discuss is tough. We can always talk about our QB but that is useless really. We can talk about the rookies and which ones will be good and solve the issues some parts of the team had last year. This is highly unlikely but par for the course this time of year. The kool aid good. Real good!

The best we can hope for is that Jordan Addison proves to be a decent replacement for Adam Thielen. It will be exciting to see how he performs and even if it does not match Thielen’s numbers from last year (70,716,6), it only matters that he does fairly well since he will be a rookie.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/fantasy/2023-rookie-wide-receiver-best-ball-primer/

Rookie WR Expectations

The below table is the average outcome (50th percentile) for rookie WRs from 2016 onward, separated by NFL Draft round. You’ll notice that none of these numbers are particularly exciting. Rookie WRs are historically good bets in best ball tournaments, since most of their production occurs in the second half of the season and into the fantasy playoffs — where the majority of money is actually won on Underdog.

Scroll to the bottom of this article to see the 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and 90th percentile outcomes for rookie WRs since 2016 to better understand their scary floors but tantalizing ceilings. The 90th percentile outcomes table is the very reason that rookie WRs with high draft capital are excellent best ball targets early in the offseason.

Round Sample Size Tgt Rec Yards TD

1 27 73 46 584 3

2 36 63 37 485 2.5

3 25 23 15 198 1

4 24 17 10 99 0.5

5 22 15 10 164 1.5

6 21 12 7 104 0

7 17 11 6 73 0

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https://www.fantasypros.com/2023/03/dynasty-rookie-draft-primer-wide-receivers-2023-fantasy-football/

Jordan Addison (USC)

Stats:

2022 (286 FBS WRs, minimum 50 targets)

Yards per route run: 21st

PFF receiving grade: 22nd

2021 (251 FBS WRs, minimum 50 targets)

Yards per route run: 22nd

PFF receiving grade: 12th

Career

2.00 or higher yards per route run in each collegiate season

Scouting report:

Addison is fluid and silky smooth through his routes. He’s quick in and out of his breaks. He displays nuance in his routes with pacing, subtle head fakes, and his understanding of leverage.

His change-of-direction ability is effortless. He can gear down easily and jab step during a route without losing speed.

Addison has a decent burst after the catch, but it’s not likely to ever be a calling card.

He dealt with drops early in his collegiate career, with 14.3% and 9.9% drop rates before 2022. He displayed growth here in 2022, decreasing that mark to 3.3%. He has strong hands, though, with contested catch rates of 53.8% and 55.6% before 2022. Addison will never be confused as a body catcher, as he routinely plucks the ball from the air away from his body.

Addison is a versatile wide receiver that played from the slot in 2020-2021 (68.0-82.6%) before transitioning to the boundary (75.5% out wide) in 2022. His superb route running and short-area separation skills allow him to play multiple roles fluidly. Addison’s varied release package at this stage of his career is impressive.

Addison reminds me of watching DeVonta Smith with a difference in play strength. Smith played above his weight class but Addison plays at his weight.

Player Comp: DeVonta Smith

Dynasty Outlook: Addison will be Justin Jefferson’s running mate in Minnesota after the Vikings selected him in the first round of the NFL Draft. Addison should immediately fight T.J. Hockenson for the second spot in the passing game pecking order. There’s plenty of passing volume available for Addison to have a monster rookie season. Last year the Vikings were fourth in neutral script passing rate and second in red zone passing rate. With the addition of Addison and a wretched defensive unit, the Vikings will again challenge for the league lead in passing attempts.

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The rest of the draft class probably does not contribute that much and only their development is important. If Blackmon gets a ton of snaps then he likely is going to struggle. We’ll have to live with that and hope for the best.

There is no news on Dalvin Cook and we should not expect any before June 1st.

Overthecap has the Vikings with $9,579,639 in cap space for 2023 and $41,888,945 for 2024.

Trade Cook for whatever and the cap space changes to $20,579,639 for 2023 and $54,388,945 for 2024.

Extend Hockenson on a 4 yr 58M deal with a 15M signing bonus and a 3M option bonus in 2024

The cap space changes to $25,828,639 for 2023 and $42,634,778 for 2024.

Extend Hunter on a 3 yr 63M deal with a 25M signing bonus and a 3M roster bonus in 2023

The cap space changes to $17,828,639 for 2023 and $34,754,778 for 2024.

Extend Jefferson on a 4 yr 128M deal with a 25M signing bonus and a 15M option bonus in 2024

The cap space changes to $12,828,639 for 2023 and $34,497,778 for 2024.

His fifth year option amount is $19,743,000 so the 2024 cap space does not go down much in this scenario.

In 2024, they can eat the 28M dead money cap hit for Cousins or use that to extend him again.

They probably would let Harrison Smith go which saves $11,384,116 in cap space.

That would get them to 45M in cap space for 2024.

Not bad.

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Since yore last open thread ...

Where will the best Vikings road games be this year?

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Pro Football Focus identifies big breakout candidate for the Vikings

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Jordan Addison will probably hang up on you

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Yore Mock

Trade Partner: Indianapolis Colts

Sent: Round 1 Pick 23, Future Round 1 Pick, Future Round 2 Pick

Received: Round 1 Pick 8

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Trade Partner: San Francisco 49ers

Sent: Round 4 Pick 23, Round 4 Pick 25

Received: Round 3 Pick 36, Round 6 Pick 34

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8: R1 P8 WR Marvin Harrison Jr. - Ohio State

55: R2 P23 C Sedrick Van Pran - Georgia

100: R3 P36 LB Jestin Jacobs - Oregon

142: R5 P6 S Demani Richardson - Texas A&M

168: R5 P32 G Zak Zinter - Michigan

198: R6 P23 DL Kris Jenkins - Michigan

209: R6 P34 CB Khyree Jackson - Oregon

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Trade up to take another WR in the first round and use a future 1st and 2nd? WTF are you smoking dude? It is crazy fo sho.

But I imagine they will extend Cousins and Osborn will walk. Give Cousins JJ, Addison, and Harrison and we are talking about some serious weapons!

Have to get the heir apparent to Bradbury and then pick up another guard to battle for a backup spot.

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